Insight and inspiration in turbulent times.
We will not have smooth sailing with respect to oil prices during the next few years, as there are many geopolitical and economic events that could occur as early as this year. Most of these potential developments are likely to drive oil prices higher, but one or two could drive prices lower.
Dr. Larry Hughes’ recent study entitled “Eastern Canadian crude oil supply and its implications for regional energy security” was recently published in Energy Policy (Jan. 2010, 8 pgs)…Hughes’ analysis of the drop in export capacity of key “safe suppliers” fits nicely with the work of Jeff Brown, Robert Hirsch, Jeff Rubin, and Paul Stevens, all of whom have addressed the impending threat of oil export decline. Hughes’ analysis appears to be unique insofar as he has applied the export decline syndrome to the energy security of a specific import-dependent region.
Oilwatch monthly for February 2010
Some of you may know that over the last 3 or 4 years, I wrote extensively about our precarious oil supply. Since then I’ve broadened my outlook in so far as it’s hard to choose among all the potential disasters on our doorstep.
-Goldilocks and the three fuels
-Israel Urges Iran Oil Embargo Even Without U.N. Okay
-Why Peak Oil Is The Only Thing That Can Stop The Chinese Export Deluge
Fuel cell company Bloom Energy made quite a stir over the weekend, with a spot on the CBS “Sixty Minutes” TV program in the United States (The Bloom Box: An Energy Breakthrough? – see the link for the video and transcript).
A weekly roundup of peak oil news, including:
-Prices and production
-The Iranian standoff
-Nuclear power for the U.S.
-Quote of the week
-Briefs
For the world economy to be considered sustainable; that is, to reach and maintain a decent level of living for the entire global population for a century or two, the use of renewable resources should not exceed sustainable yields; pollution levels should not surpass the environment’s absorbing/regenerating capacity; the drawdown of nonrenewable resources should decline in proportion with the depletion of stocks; and environmental goals and technical progress helping to achieve them ought to gain universal application.
While reading Gerald Zaltman and Lindsay Zaltman’s Marketing Metaphoria: What deep metaphors reveal about the minds of consumers, (MM), I recalled a healthcare consultant who told me, “You really should market peak oil, but you’ve got to give folks some good news to win them over.” I laughed and replied, “Are you kidding? I’m not selling whiter teeth”…
Even for staunch proponents of U.S. biofuel policy, it is hard to argue that the current subsidy on grain ethanol serves the purpose it was designed to serve. With ethanol mandates now in place in the form of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), there is a mechanism – with penalties for non-compliance – to ensure that gasoline blenders use the mandated amount of ethanol. Maintaining a subsidy on top of a mandate would be like paying people to obey the speed limit.
Over the past decade oil optimists repeatedly forecast a glut in oil supplies that kept failing to materialize. Now, they are reaching for a fig leaf hoping no one will remember their consistently errant predictions. That fig leaf is the idea that we have reached peak demand, and that that’s the reason we have not seen oil production rise in the past several years.
-American Blitzkrieg: loving the German war machine to death
-This isn’t Falklands II
-Yemen’s water crisis eclipses al Qaeda threat
