Insight and inspiration in turbulent times.
Margot McDowell is a sail maker and seamstress in Anacortes, Washington. She has a counterpart here and there in the region, such as a woman in Port Townsend and a woman in Bellingham. Considering the number of sailboats and ongoing demand for more sails and sail repair, these sail makers barely comprise a local industry. This is because the great majority of sails are made in Taiwan — made out of Dacron, a petroleum product.
Dear theoildrum.com readers. Many of you may have wondered about my absence here over the last 6 months or so. Suffice it to say that I’ve had a sea change of understanding about both our situation and on the opportunities it presents. As such, I’ve made some career change decisions, which Kyle and Gail are allowing me to share with you here (based on my prior efforts at TOD). Starting May 1, I have accepted an offer from Goldman Sachs to become a Managing Partner in a new energy and resource hedge fund where I’ll be one of three people responsible for security selection and risk management. Details, and the story of how I came to ‘see the light’ on resource depletion opportunities are below the fold. Basically I feel like a kid in a candy store.
Think of it as a tale of two countries. When it comes to procuring the resources that make industrial societies run, China is now the shopaholic of planet Earth, while the United States is staying at home. Hard-hit by the global recession, the United States has experienced a marked decline in the consumption of oil and other key industrial materials. Not so China.
-Drill, baby, drill: The myth of energy independence
-Obama to Open Offshore Areas to Oil Drilling for First Time
-Expect a new peak for oil next year
-So Much for Peak Demand… Try 134mb/d by 2030
I invested a lot of time into finding our post-carbon landing pad. I tend to side with realtors on this one: location, location, location.
The sparkling, sanitized waterfront of Cardiff, Wales, reveals barely a hint of the country’s grimy industrial past. Where one of the busiest ports anywhere once shipped Welsh coal out into the world, a complex of upscale shops, pubs, and restaurants now dominates the area. Out are the sailors, brothels, and seedy watering holes. In are tourist-friendly pubs, fusion restaurants with names like ffresh, and a circus carousel. The locally favored Brains brewery (“People who know beer have Brains”) has survived nearby.
In the years leading up to the crash of the Housing Bubble in 2006 and the subsequent financial meltdown in 2008, there was no shortage of people telling us America’s continued prosperity was not in jeopardy. All that talk was nonsense, of course. In 2010, the situation is eerily similar in the natural gas business. We are told that we have 100 years of supply, implying that we will still be producing cheap shale gas long after the oceans are devoid of fish. As in the pre-Housing Bubble days, a few skeptics are crying foul. There are underground rumblings that things are not on the up & up with shale gas.
At an International Energy Forum meeting in Cancun, Mexico, the world’s energy ministers and oil producers are trying to agree on ways to prevent oil price spikes in the immediate future – although at least one economist is predicting “triple-digit” oil later this year.
-Martin Crawford and me speaking at the Launch of ‘Climate Friendly Food’
-Churches partner with ‘transition town’ environmental movement
-Lexicon of Change: The Rise of Transition Culture
Gazprom, the largest natural gas company in the world, is experiencing a moment of truth. And so, by extension, is Russia, which has relied on the behemoth for a large part of its tax revenue, and as a spearpoint of its foreign policy. The main ramifications are a shakeup in security presumptions in Europe and on the Caspian Sea, both of which until recently have seemed to be under Gazprom’s thumb.
– Falkland Islands drilling disappoints for Desire
– Books about oil: FT says we’ll be slower, more local
– How the majors see ‘business as usual’ on oil and climate
– Postponing peak oil with Fatih Birol, chief economist of the IEA
– Highlights from the first year of the FT Energy Source blog
The world’s energy ministers are currently discussing a forecast of global oil supplies “peaking between 2020-2025.” The International Energy Forum is the world’s largest gathering of Energy Ministers, who collectively represent “more than 90 per cent of global oil and gas supply and demand.” It is meeting March 29 –31 at the Mexican resort of Cancun. It will be considering peak oil with a document titled Unpacking Uncertainty: Investment Issues in the Petroleum Sector, written by “strategic advisors” PFC Energy, chosen to give an impartial overview of the various oil supply claims.
