ODAC Newsletter – Sep 3

A report by the German armed services (the Bundeswehr) on the implications of peak oil on national security was leaked to the internet this week and picked up by Der Spiegel. The report, which was produced by the Future Analysis department of the Bundeswehr Transformation Centre, acknowledges that peak oil will happen, and that while estimates of the timing vary it could be any time from 2010 with the impacts on security likely to be felt 15 to 20 years later.

Exponentially on purpose: a century-and-a-half of ignored warnings

The peak oil debate is a case of history repeating itself: people have been ignoring warnings about exponential use of finite resources for a century and a half. No-one wants to hear the argument. Even International Energy Agency forecasts of record world oil demand, and warnings that the “era of cheap oil is over” made barely a ripple in the media.

German military study warns of potential energy crisis – English translation of main points

This week a study on peak oil by a German military think tank was leaked on the Internet. The document shows that the German government is closely studying the issue of peak oil, and is aware of the potential for serious consequences as oil production declines. The study is reminiscent of the Hirsch Report, commissioned by the U.S. Department of Energy, that warned of the risks posed by peak oil. … Below is a friend’s translation of the major points in the report.

German military study warns of a potentially drastic oil crisis

A study by a German military think tank has analyzed how “peak oil” might change the global economy. The internal draft document — leaked on the Internet — shows for the first time how carefully the German government has considered a potential energy crisis. (excerpts)
Update: English translation of table of contents and lead paragraphs.

A peak oil reference

Despite the volumes of material that have been written on peak oil, there still did not exist (to the best of my knowledge, anyway) a single online reference that presents this very complex topic in a form that’s both accessible to newbies, and that links to the deeper data and theory. So I built one, on contract with ASPO-USA, based on some of their existing material and my old “Peak Oil Media Guide” from 2008. It’s still a fairly skeletal first draft, comprising only 16 web pages, but hopefully it will grow, and serve as a useful guide to the public, the media, and others.