Fossil Fuels

Energy prices and US recessions

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For all the recessions from 1973 on, energy prices were rising either before or immediately at the onset of the recession, and in every case they “broke” in some sense before the recession was over – either declining, or at least sharply slowing in growth. The paradigm case is 1973 where energy prices were rising steadily and then a huge oil shock coincides with the start of the recession, which only ends after prices have stabilized.

The context of Hubbert’s Peak in world oil forecast

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Hubbert’s Curve still remains important because it provides something close to an upper limit to the amount of oil that can be produced. The reason I say “close to” an upper limit because there is still the possibility of technological advances, making new types of production economic. Experience to date shows that the role of these advances is likely to be fairly small, though.

Complaining about mosquito bites while a crocodile bites our leg

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I am not an oil industry apologist, but recognize that I live in an oil-centric world, own a car, enjoy air travel and partake in the daily smorgasbord of food, services, and novelty made possible in the cheap energy age. To me, given the problems our country and government face, blaming Exxon for high gasoline prices and excessive tax subsidies is akin to complaining about a mosquito bite on your arm when a crocodile has your leg in its mouth.

The ghost of ASPO-9: climate change

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The first morning of the 9th ASPO conference in Brussels had a good presentation of what we know today about climate change. But the IPCC vision is not the same as that of ASPO and the contrast flared during the panel discussion, when Kjell Aleklett, president of ASPO, accused van Ypersele and IPCC of following a “business as usual” approach. Having neglected peak oil (and peak fuels) in their scenarios, Aleklett said, the IPCC was presenting unrealistic and excessively pessimistic predictions of global warming.

Time to wake up: Days of abundant resources and falling prices are over forever

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If I am right, we are now entering a period in which, like it or not, we must finally follow President Carter’s advice to develop a thoughtful energy policy and give up our carefree and careless ways with resources. The quicker we do this, the lower the cost will be. Any improvement at all in lifestyle for our grandchildren will take much more thoughtful behavior from political leaders and more restraint from everyone. Rapid growth is not ours by divine right; it is not even mathematically possible over a sustained period.

More on the Saudi’s slash of oil output

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In other words, Mr. Horsnell is saying that since the world previously thought that the Saudi’s were producing less in December than they actually were, then the estimated worldwide “buffer” production capacity was significantly less than believed, as well. Also, his observation that the Saudi’s evidently needed to produce at 9 million b/d in order to balance the market is the exact opposite of what Mr. Naimi said, four weeks later….In turn, if the Saudi’s can’t really sustain even 9 million b/d, then this would have serious implications for the world in that the next, more intense manifestations of Peak Oil may be nearer than we think.