Insight and inspiration in turbulent times.
“There have been few more passionate debates in resource economics than around peak oil, whether it has or hasn’t happened and indeed whether peak oil is about resources left or production levels.”
A mid-week round-up of peak oil news.
We’ve known for a long time about basic polar amplification. Warming melts highly reflective white ice and snow, which is replaced by the dark blue sea or dark land, both of which absorb far more sunlight and hence far more solar energy. More recently another insidious feedback has become obvious — as the Arctic ice retreats, big oil companies can drill for more fossil fuels whose combustion will accelerate warming and ice retreat…Local pollution in the Arctic from shipping and oil and gas industries, which have expanded in the region due to a thawing of sea ice caused by global warming, could further accelerate that thaw, experts say.
-Has vehicle efficiency really curbed U.S. oil demand?
-Thresholds in the economic effects of oil prices
-Fuel use in new cars could halve by 2030: IEA
One of the reasons that I am in China just now is that Uppsala University is discussing increased collaboration with the Chinese University of Petroleum in Beijing, CUPB. It is Professor Feng of the School of Business Administration at CUPB that leads research on Peak Oil at that university. He has just organised a workshop with the theme “The Impacts of Peak Oil”.
A weekly review including:
-Oil and the Global Economy
-The Middle East
-The Oil Market Report
-Quote of the Week
-Briefs
Grandiose statements about the “Asian Century” are now being followed by warnings that the days of rivers of gold from China are over. Economic growth needs growing quantities of oil. Where will it come from? Not from South East Asia which peaked in 2000 as will be shown in this article.
The victory last year to stop the Keystone XL pipeline was a temporary victory. I guess all environmental victories are temporary, but this one was even more temporary than most. Mitt Romney has made it absolutely clear that if he wins the election his first duty, on his first day in office, will be to approve the Keystone XL pipeline. Barack Obama hasn’t said one way or another what he will do, but the signs aren’t particularly great.
In the old days, that is before 2010, the oil industry used to regale the public with tales of plenty that revolved around what is commonly called "conventional oil." Then in its 2010 World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency announced that the peak in the rate of production of conventional oil had already arrived, probably in 2006. The agency projected that production of so-called "unconventional oil" would grow considerably over the coming decades and allow total oil production to rise. But, new unconventional oil production may not be able to make up for the decline in the rate of conventional oil production. And, rate is the key metric.
Energy news was dominated this week by the growing controversy over shale gas in Europe and the UK…
An update is warranted to address comments from friends and followers – comments such as “Gee, I guess Peak Oil has been postponed?”, or “I guess we don’t have to worry about Peak Oil anymore!” Often they have a smile on their face …
The shale oil plays will reduce but not eliminate our reliance on foreign oil. Should a supply disruption occur over the next decade, we will be better off having this production than not. The natural gas and NGL from these plays will provide high-quality, low-carbon heat energy for electricity as well as feedstock for plastics – which could help jumpstart manufacturing.
Overall, these plays don’t solve the much larger issue of Peak Oil, but they do help “buy time.”
One week ago the news spread that Saudi Arabia would be forced to become an importer of oil by 2030. It was an article in Bloomberg’s Businessweek that announced this sensational news and referred to a report titled ”Saudi Petrochemicals – The End of the Magic Porridge Pot?” that was released by Citigroup Global Markets Inc. on 4 September.
