Insight and inspiration in turbulent times.
– Thomas Homer-Dixon: Our Fukushima moment
– Amory Lovins: With Nuclear Power, “No Acts of God Can Be Permitted”
– Roger Smith: Paul Goodman on nuclear power
– Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: World energy crunch as nuclear and oil both go wrong
It is irresponsible to ask people to rely on the calculation of small probabilities for man-made systems since these probabilities are almost impossible to calculate with any accuracy. Natural systems that have operated for eons may more easily lend themselves to the calculation of such probabilities. But man-made systems have a relatively short history to draw from, especially the nuclear infrastructure which is no more than 60 years old. Calculations for man-made systems that result in incidents occurring every million years should be dismissed on their face as useless.
– Radiation Spread Seen; Frantic Repairs Go On
– A Hunger for Information
– Plant’s Design, Safety Record Are Under Scrutiny
– Monbiot: Japan nuclear crisis should not carry weight in atomic energy debate
– Jonathan Schell: From Hiroshima to Fukushima
When we design machinery that is dangerous and prone to failure we try to reduce risks by tight regulations, specifics, and centralised control. Of course, these strategies are expensive and therefore are best implemented over large scales. So, we are raising the stakes by building bigger and more expensive systems in order to hedge the risk of failure. In the case of nuclear energy, the result is the concentration of power production in large plants. That strategy seems to work, within limits: on the average, the safety record of the nuclear industry is not bad. But when something goes wrong with a nuclear plant, it tends to go wrong in a big way, such as with Chernobyl and Fukushima.
The earthquake and tsunami which ripped apart the northern half of Honshu in Japan on Friday has caused a massive humanitarian disaster and a nuclear emergency which may still develop into a major catastrophe. The wider knock on effects could be a backlash against nuclear power, and further global economic instability as a result of damage to what is the world’s 3rd largest economy. Meanwhile in Libya the civil war raged on, and in Bahrain protests became bloody as the government turned to military force and outside help to retain power.
Once hailed for enabling the post-war renaissance, construction — including construction of nuclear power plants — has become a juggernaut. Astonishingly, tiny Japan, smaller than California, recently boasted the largest construction industry in the world. (It now rates third, behind China and the U.S.) To maintain its hegemony, its lobby has run advertising campaigns identifying nature as “the enemy,” tapping into fears of earthquakes, tsunamis, and typhoons.
-German green industries say can fill nuclear gaps
-China suspends all new nuclear plants, orders safety review; U.S. plans unchanged
-Japan crisis reignites nuclear debate
-EU to carry out stress tests on nuclear plants
Just look around: the cities that are vibrant and alive all have excellent and convenient transportation services that the residents use frequently; they are cities that are designed for people and not automobiles. Then take a look at many of Ohio’s cities: the central cores are deserted after business hours. Walk around the downtown areas and notice the wide streets cluttered with fast-moving traffic; then look at the relative lack of safe places for people to walk. Notice the parking lot deserts where shopping and other services, as well as residences, could be built instead. If we want to rebuild our great cities, we need a real commitment to invest in public transportation.
It is coming to the point that one’s world outlook has to be modified every few months as the old ways of looking at things are changed by events. So it is with oil — supply, demand and, of course, price. At the beginning of the year the future of oil was thought to be mostly about China and how fast its economy and demand for oil would grow during 2011. In last two months, however, the world situation has changed markedly and we now have a multiplicity of factors vying to influence the global oil markets in ways as yet unknown.
– NYT: Reactor Design in Japan Has Long Been Questioned
– Nuclear power: when the answer becomes the problem
– What will spark the next Fukushima?
– Nuclear power: After the flood
Yesterday I believe will go down in history as one of the most significant for mankind. Whilst most citizens of the developed and developing world’s do not realise this yet, the future course of the human global energy system has just changed course with potentially far reaching consequences for human civilisation.
There are greener, cheaper, more secure, quicker to install, safer alternatives to new nuclear so don’t let yourself be persuaded that it’s the only solution. It’s not.
