Energy Policy

Don’t count on revolution in oil supply

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This is a guest post by Sadad al-Huseini, now a petroleum consultant and formerly executive vice president of Saudi Aramco for exploration and production, and is a response to the recent article in PIW (Petroleum Intelligence Weekly) by Leonardo Maugeri on his new study Oil: the Next Revolution, challenging his optimism about future oil supplies.

Pic pétrolier : deux vice-présidents de Total répondent à Oil Man

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English summary: Total has agreed to present on my blog its scenario on world future oil production. No peak oil in sight according to Total, provided the industry puts on stream 45 Mb/d in the next 15 years. How can this tremendous task may be achieved ? Huge uncertainties remain in this unpublished scenario.

La direction du groupe Total a accepté de présenter ici son scénario sur l’avenir du pétrole. Selon elle, aucun déclin des extractions ne s’annonce à l’horizon… à condition de développer d’ici 15 ans l’équivalent de la moitié de la production mondiale actuelle ! Comment réussir pareil tour de force ? De vastes zones d’ombre subsistent dans ce scénario inédit. [excerpt]

Considerations of Chinese demand growth

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There are many parts of the country where these interconnections and improvements to the infrastructure are still going on. As those changes occur, the increasing use of power-driven vehicles continues to rise, and with it the need for increased supply. The risk of exacerbating popular unrest if that change were to stop is just one reason why it is bound to continue, and with it China’s continued need for additional supplies of all forms of fossil fuels.

An interview with Jorgen Randers: “2052” – “It’s the story of humanity not rising to the occasion

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Jorgen Randers is professor of climate strategy at the BI Norwegian Business School, and among many other things, was coauthor of The Limits to Growth in 1972, Beyond the Limits in 1992, andLimits to Growth: The 30-Year Update in 2004. He has recently published 2052: a global forecast for the next forty years. I had the great honour of interviewing Jorgen recently, via Skype from his study at his home in Norway.

Peak oil – oil prices need to double in a decade

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Michael Kumhof explains the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Department’s new, strikingly more accurate, oil supply/price/demand prediction model, and says that according to the model oil prices will need to double in a decade to grow world oil production by 0.9%, in line with published EIA predictions