Insight and inspiration in turbulent times.
A review of Amory Lovins, “More Profit with Less Carbon”. In short, Lovins throws a lot of numbers around, but far too many of the ones he provides are irrelevant, meaningless, or misleading. The road ahead is much more difficult than he portrays.
A worthy reply to the Freakonomics criticisms of peak oil.
UK Gas resources are in a precarious state, with output falling faster than either the Department of Trade or the UK Offshore Operators Association had anticipated, according to a leading Scottish energy economist.
Excellent calm take on both pump fright and peak oil from mainstream newspaper columnist. [subscription reqd for full text]
A group of 26 countries, including the United States, yesterday agreed to release oil, gasoline or other petroleum products from their emergency reserves in an attempt to bring down soaring prices and avert domestic [US] shortages.
BRUSSELS During the first half of 2005, gasoline consumption in Germany and Belgium – and presumably in many other countries – fell by about 10 percent. We have not seen a drop like this for many years. It shows that the market mechanism continues to function as the most important regulator of supply and demand – and very speedily indeed.
Rising anger in China over spreading fuel shortages is increasing pressure on Beijing and the local oil majors to devise a new pricing policy to head off future crises over oil supplies to motorists.
With gasoline nearly $3 gallon, there needs to be a mainstream discussion of the alternatives.
On 11 October 2005, in London, a major conference will look at the peak
oil problem and its impact on climate change, the world’s food supply and
the world economy. Speakers include Michael Meacher MP, Tim Lang and
Andrew Simms (of NEF), and the chair will be Dr Ian Gibson MP. The
conference is being organised by East Anglia Food Link, CRed, Sustain and
PowerSwitch.org.uk.
Politely framed and important challenge to the peak oil argument, questioning why oil suppliers would willingly for-go the massive potential profits:
"…So how could it be that there are billions and billions of easy dollars to be made, and nobody can be bothered to collect them? Unless you have a clear answer for that question, an economist at that point is going to ask whether you’re sure that you’ve got all the facts straight, that oil really is going to sell for $200 a barrel in just two years."
At present, world conventional light crude oil production is barely keeping up with rising demand. At some point, conventional light crude oil production will peak, and then decline – a phenomenon commonly known as “Peak Oil”. This will lead to a sharp, sustained rise in world oil prices, at which point the world will have entered the post-cheap-oil age. …
Because the implications of Peak Oil are so serious for New Zealand, SEF recommends that the Government, and individuals, start planning for “the Peak Oil crisis” now.
… But private warnings also point to a worsening long-term outlook, with Saudi officials saying that the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will be unable to meet projected western demand in 10 to 15 years. …
Saudi Arabia pumps 9.5m b/d and has assured consumer countries that it could reach 12.5m b/d in 2009 and probably 15m b/d eventually. But a senior western energy official said: “They said it would be extremely difficult to move above that figure”.
