Coal

Exponential Economist Meets Finite Physicist

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Some while back, I found myself sitting next to an accomplished economics professor at a dinner event. Shortly after pleasantries, I said to him, “economic growth cannot continue indefinitely,” just to see where things would go. It was a lively and informative conversation. I was somewhat alarmed by the disconnect between economic theory and physical constraints—not for the first time, but here it was up-close and personal. Though my memory is not keen enough to recount our conversation verbatim, I thought I would at least try to capture the key points and convey the essence of the tennis match—with some entertainment value thrown in.

Climate – Mar 27

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-Link builds between weather extremes and warming
-Met Office: World warmed even more in last ten years than previously thought when Arctic data added
-EPA Said to Be Close to Limiting U.S. Greenhouse-Gas Emissions
-James Hansen: Why I must speak out about climate change- Ted talk
-Post Carbon Pathways? Necessary. Possible. Urgent – Report

If only we had free energy

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I thought I’d do a thought experiment. Suppose tomorrow morning a hypothetical university—let’s call it T.I.M.—sends out their weekly press release claiming a “revolutionary breakthrough” that will change the way we think about energy. Unlike every other time in the past decade they’ve made this claim, though, suppose this time it’s actually true: they’ve discovered a way of producing extremely cheap energy—as near to “free energy” as can be imagined.

World energy consumption since 1820 in charts

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In this post, I provide…charts showing long-term changes in energy supply, together with some observations regarding implications. One such implication is how economists can be misled by past patterns, if they do not realize that past patterns reflect very different energy growth patterns than we will likely see in the future.

China Coal Update

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World coal production and consumption data for 2011 are not yet compiled and published, but one key number is in. China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reports that the country’s coal output rose 8.7 percent from 2010 to reach 3.88 billion short tons last year. For comparison, US consumption in 2010 was just over 1 billion tons—and holding steady (mostly due to cheap natural gas prices). If the current trend continues, China will burn well over 4 billion tons of coal in 2012, four times as much as the US.

Energy – Feb 28

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– Telegraph: Soaring oil prices will dwarf the Greek drama
– Geoengineering is going to happen. Desperate people do desperate things,
– Gas: climate panacea or industry propaganda?
– Gingrich is wrong on both gun racks in Chevy Volts and US energy policy
– La future rente des gaz de schiste: une malédiction à conjurer par l’intelligence