Insight and inspiration in turbulent times.
In this year, 2011, we are enjoying a lifestyle beyond the most optimistic dreams of past generations. We are benefitting from the whirlwind of achievements in science and technology during the last hundred years. There has never been a century like the one just passed, and there will never be another like it. Lifestyles will be very different when oil and gas are depleted.
Between April last year and March this year, the world was struck by three Black Swan events that ‘everyone’ knew would happen, yet, strangely, seemed unprepared for when they did. The Gulf of Mexico oil leak, the political upheavals in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region and the earthquake-tsunami-nuclear tragedy in Japan are already inflicting history-altering impacts, not the least, because they have significantly and immediately reduced the world’s supply of cheap energy.
In the several years or so since peak oil began generating significant literature and debate, it has attracted a diverse array of thinkers. To name a few, there are insiders like Colin Campbell and Ken Deffeyes who sounded the first warnings; a clinical psychologist in the field of “peak oil blues,” Kathy McMahon; an archdruid practiced in nature’s less readily perceptible energies, John Michael Greer; and a couple of highly engaging social critics, Jim Kunstler and Dmitry Orlov. Richard Heinberg’s distinction is that he’s hands-down the most prolific peak oil author, now having written half a dozen books on the subject and a few others touching on it tangentially. His latest, The End of Growth, is yet another grand performance.
Resource scarcity and climate change should be driving forward our transition to the energy systems of the future. Though this transition has started in important ways in several locations, change is not being undertaken at either the scale or speed required.
World energy policy is gripped by a fallacy — the idea that coal is destined to stay cheap for decades to come. This assumption supports investment in "clean-coal" technology and trumps serious efforts to increase energy conservation and develop alternative energy sources. It is an important enough assumption about our energy future that it demands closer examination.
Coal still plays a dominant role in the U.S. energy mix, accounting for almost 45% of American electricity production. But the economics of coal continue to change, making the resource look far less attractive today than it once was.
The Carbon Tracker initiative is a new way of looking at the carbon emissions problem. It is focused on the fossil fuel reserves held by publically listed companies and the way they are valued and assessed by markets. Currently financial markets have an unlimited capacity to treat fossil fuel reserves as assets. As governments move to control carbon emissions, this market failure is creating systemic risks for institutional investors, notably the threat of fossil fuel assets becoming stranded as the shift to a low-carbon economy accelerates.
During the past century, world economic growth has depended largely on ever-expanding use of hydrocarbon energy sources: oil for transportation, coal and natural gas for electricity generation, oil and gas for agricultural production. It is no exaggeration to say that the health of the global economy currently hinges on increasing rates of production of these fuels.
World coal production is dominated by China. China’s coal production is projected to peak in 2027 with a peak production level of 5.1 billion tons. World (excluding China)’s coal production is projected to peak in 2027 with a peak production level of 4.1 billion tons. …
The BP Statistical Review of World Energy reports China’s coal reserves to be 114.5 billion tons. This is the number that is widely cited by media and used by virtually all international energy institutions as China’s “proved” coal reserves. In fact, the BP number has not been updated since 1992. Given the observed rapid growth of China’s coal production, the reserves number reported by BP is likely to have substantially underestimated China’s remaining recoverable coal resources.
A recent series of studies and rebuttals have debated the greenhouse gas impacts of shale gas production as compared to coal. Post Carbon Institute Fellow David Hughes, author of the groundbreaking report, "Will Natural Gas Fuel America in the 21st Century?", provides an analysis of two conflicting studies. His conclusion: Shale gas is worse than coal for the climate over a 30-50 year timeframe, depending upon the technology used.
A weekly roundup of peak oil news, including:
-Oil and the global economy
-Tapping the reserves
-China
-Quote of the week
-Briefs
Dubbed French version of Dubbed French version of the PCI video ‘300 Years of FOSSIL FUELS in 300 Seconds’. L’histoire humaine des 300 dernières années dont le développement repose sur les énergies fossiles.
