Year: 2011

The peak oil crisis: civil unrest

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America’s problem today is that almost nobody in any official position is willing to publicly recognize the real nature of the problem we face and start talking about realistic solutions. So long as our elected officials and our media continue to speak endlessly about the recovery that is supposedly underway and continue to hold out the hope that, by voting for this or that candidate, all will be well, the great charade will continue and the people will get madder and madder.

Local grains

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One of the main enablers of a demographic shift away from a rural-agrarian population to an urban-industrial one is the combine. The combine removes most labor from agriculture for the most critical crops: edible grains, legumes and oil seeds. Seeds are a highly portable, storable and versatile class of food, allowing civilizations to trade and buffer against shortages. Most calories now consumed derive directly or indirectly from seeds.

2011: Living in interesting times

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Some economists have high hopes for 2011. The stock market has broken 11,000 and many predict GDP growth. I don’t necessarily see a rising stock market and GDP as indicators of economic health, especially since the vast majority of stock market gains goes to a very small minority of people. The stock market may zoom, GDP may grow, but what will be happening to the majority of people – considering the forces and trends that are in play? Maybe it’s my pessimistic side, but I continue to have some major concerns about the economy…

Changing the frequency

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In one of the last entries for 2010 on Transition Culture Rob Hopkins posts his interview with Christopher Alexander, a discussion of the links between A Pattern Language and the new Transition ingredients. At some point the architect and writer’s wife, Maggie enters the conversation: “If Transition was successful, what the community would feel – it would feel like home. Simple. Everyone can feel that feeling. You know it when you see it; it just feels like home…

Peak Coal: the Olduvai perspective

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Coal will not be able to replace the other fossil fuels. Whether extraction peaks in 2011 or in 2050, the probabilities of coal on its own being able to help the world avoid the Olduvai cliff are slim at best.

Certainly, this fossil fuel can still become more relevant as a fuel in some regions of the world.
This can occur in the US for instance, if reported reserves are anywhere near a geological reality. In such places, coal can provide time for a smoother transition to a fully renewable energy paradigm, but on a global scale, the panorama is entirely different.

For states or nations that are net importers today but do not possess realistic reserve perspectives, the use of coal is more a thing of the past than of the future.

Food riots – Jan 11

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– Gwynne Dyer: The Future of Food Riots
– Andrew Revkin: Beyond the Eternal Food Fight
– At least 14 dead in Tunisian riots over rising food prices
– Latest Food Crisis Brewing for Months

Wikileaks, Karl Marx and you

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Despite blanket media coverage of Wikileaks and Julian Assange, there has been little discussion of the fact that Assange is merely one leader within a large and complicated social movement, the “free culture movement.” The present situation was predicted by visionary hackers over thirty years ago, and they set out to ensure the victory of free culture over proprietary culture, open organisation over closed, and privacy over Big Brother.