Insight and inspiration in turbulent times.
The standard economic assumption is that, as a resource becomes scarce, prices will rise until some other resource that can fill the same need becomes cheaper by comparison. What really happens, when there is no ready substitute, can perhaps best be explained with the help of a little recent history and an old children’s story.
Consider the first 15 minutes after the Titanic hit the iceberg versus the last 15 minutes before the ship sank. In the first 15 minutes, only a handful of people knew that ship would sink, but that did not mean that the ship was not sinking. In the last 15 minutes, it was readily apparent to everyone that the ship was sinking, but by then it was far too late to try to get to a lifeboat.
We live by the grace of invertebrates. They work around the clock, collect and dispose of our waste, replenish the soil, feed animals above them on the food chain and allow plants to return each spring. This time of year, as those of us in the northern hemisphere plan our gardens and sow our first seeds, we must remember to devote part of our garden to reimbursing the armies that work for us.
Oil prices are going through the roof today, and gasoline prices at the pump will follow, as we get the first regime-rattling news in a major oil-producing state. What’s happening is that the sketchy news out of Libya makes the country look like it’s on fire – Col. Muammar Qaddafi may be spending his last days in power. And even though no oil supplies have been disrupted, traders are engaging in some casino behavior and bidding up prices to new two-year highs.
We may not be able to reverse the tide of urbanization, in the nearer term. We simply don’t have enough land to allow every single person on earth an agrarian life on many acres. But how do we keep the link between city and country? It is a link that is important to both parties – the exploitation of farmers who are underpaid and disregarded is only possible when you don’t know any farmers, when you don’t care what they have to do to make your dinner. And urbanites who have lost touch with natural rhythyms need to get in touch with them, to have access to the best food on a reasonable budget, to have the knowledge to meet their own needs.
The Transition Town movement has mutated in North America, with this review of the West Coast scene. Michael Brownlee of Transition Boulder on U.S. developments, and controversial “Deep Transition”. Vandy Savage says women prefer co-operation to guns & bunkers. Joanne Poyourow reports from Transition Los Angeles (can 10 million people go “sustainable”?). Plus actuality recording of intro and update of Village Vancouver (a registered Transition Town group in Canada) by leaders Ann Pacey and Ross Moster. Full of tips for your community action plan for Peak Oil, climate disruption and tough economic times.
Fred Upton been much in the news of late as chairman of the Committee on Energy and Commerce of the U.S. House of Representatives. He told us as recently as April 24, 2009 that “climate change is a serious problem that necessitates serious solutions.” But now that he has finally gotten a little power, he has contracted selective science disorder.
Brent crude surged to $104 this week as anti-government protests spread to Libya and Bahrain, prompting a violent reaction from the authorities in both countries. 24 protesters are reported killed in Libya, and in Bahrain 4 have been killed and hundreds injured. Unlike Libya, Bahrain is not a significant oil producer, but there are fears that instability there could spread to its neighbour Saudi Arabia…
In order to help communities in South Africa’s Eastern Cape improve their economic stability and quality of life, Aspire is working to revive small town economies from the ground up, starting with a strong foundation for local farmers.
We often hear statements suggesting that by ramping up shale gas production, the US can raise total natural gas production and solve many of its energy problems, including adding quite a number of natural gas vehicles, and replacing a large share of coal fired electricity generation. While there is the possibility that shale gas will allow US natural gas supplies to increase for a few years (or even 10 or 15 years), natural gas is only about one-fourth of US fossil fuel use, so it would be very difficult to ramp it up enough to meet all of these needs.
Colin Barr at Fortune Magazine has some interesting discussion of the WTI-Brent spread (this is the difference in prices between the basic spot price of West Texas blend oil in Cushing Oklahoma, and the price of the Brent contract in Europe). “How do you get $4 gas when oil is just $85? The answer starts with some unprecedented behavior in global oil markets, where the benchmark European oil standard, known as Brent crude, is trading at a $20-a-barrel premium to the U.S. benchmark, the West Texas Intermediate futures contract that trades on Nymex. The two typically trade within a few dollars of one another.”
History repeats itself: food riots are breaking out across the poorer nations, the Middle East is in turmoil and Brent crude has passed the $100 mark – 2011 is opening just like 2008 did.
