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CO2 equivalents – misconceptions
Gavin Schmidt, Real Climate
There was a minor kerfuffle in recent days over claims by Tim Flannery (author of “The Weather Makers”) that new information from the upcoming IPCC synthesis report will show that we have reached 455 ppmv CO2_equivalent 10 years ahead of schedule, with predictable implications. This is confused and incorrect, but the definitions of CO2_e, why one would use it and what the relevant level is, are all highly uncertain in many peoples’ minds. So here is a quick rundown.
…Implications. The important number is CO2_e (Total) which is around 375 ppmv. Stabilisation scenarios of 450 ppmv or 550 ppmv are therefore still within reach. Claims that we have passed the first target are simply incorrect, however, that is not to say they are easily achievable. It is even more of a stretch to state that we have all of a sudden gone past the ‘dangerous’ level. It is still not clear what that level is, but if you take a conventional 450 ppmv CO2_e value (which will lead to a net equilibrium warming of ~ 2 deg C above pre-industrial levels), we are still a number of years from that, and we have (probably) not yet committed ourselves to reaching it.
Finally, the IPCC synthesis report is simply a concise summary of the three separate reports that have already come out. It therefore can’t be significantly different from what is already available. But this is another example where people are quoting from draft reports that they have neither properly read nor understood and for which better informed opinion is not immediately available. I wish journalists and editors would resist the temptation to jump on leaks like this (though I know it’s hard). The situation is confusing enough without adding to it unintentionally.
(11 October 2007)
Related: A key threshold crossed (Christian Science Monitor)
IPCC chair: Climate change threatens the fight to end poverty
Rajendra Pachauri, Sydney Morning Herald
…climate change is not taking place in a smooth, linear fashion. For instance, the frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas and so also the duration and intensity of droughts, particularly in the tropics and subtropics.
Climate change is likely to add to several stresses that already exist in the poorest regions of the world and affect the ability of societies in these regions to pursue sustainable livelihoods.
By 2020 between 75 million and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to an increase in water stress due to climate change in Africa. Coupled with increased demand, this will adversely affect livelihoods and exacerbate water-related problems.
Another sector likely to be affected adversely in some of the poorest regions of the world is agriculture. It has been assessed that agricultural production in many African countries and regions would be severely compromised by climate variability and change.
The area suitable for agriculture, the length of growing seasons and yield potential – particularly along the margins of semi-arid and arid areas – are expected to decrease. In some countries yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50 per cent by 2020.
Another serious impact of climate change is the melting of glaciers all over the world, and this has serious implications for South Asia and parts of China. Glacial melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding and rock avalanches from destabilised slopes and affect water resources downstream within the next two to three decades, due to decreased river flow as the glaciers recede.
(15 October 2007)
Also at Common Dream
BC Premier’s fight for the planet unveiled
Miro Cernetig, Vancouver Sun
A few weeks ago, Nobel Peace Prize winner Al Gore came to town and captivated Vancouver’s elite with a slick PowerPoint presentation showing the world’s glaciers melting, cities flooding and the other doomsday scenarios associated with global warming.
But there’s another global-warming PowerPoint slide show now being given around town by the B.C. government that people may find even more sobering.
It’s not nearly as Hollywood or entertaining as the former vice-president’s.
But it does come with some of the long-awaited specifics of how Premier Gordon Campbell’s home-grown fight to save the planet is going to change our lives on the local level.
Specifically, the government is presenting to select audiences (who don’t need to pay $250 a ticket as they did to see Gore) its first crack at estimating how much each sector of the B.C. economy must reduce its carbon footprint by 2020.
(15 October 2007)
Peace may erode as the world warms, experts say
Charles J. Hanley, Associated Press
What does global warming have to do with global peace? The globe may find out sooner than we think, experts say.
“Climate change is and will be a significant threat to our national security and, in a larger sense, to life on Earth as we know it to be,” retired Gen. Gordon Sullivan, former Army chief of staff, told a congressional panel last month.
It is about the security of nations in the short term, as policymakers figure out how to avert an energy crisis while reducing greenhouse-gas emissions, and in the long term, as they face the potential of dealing with millions of environmental refugees in search of food, water and shelter, advocates contend.
(13 October 2007)
