Pemex predicts Cantarell oil production to decline next year

El Universal via Miami Herald
Petroleos Mexicanos, the state-owned oil monopoly, said crude production in 2006 will surpass 3.4 million barrels a day, up from output of 3.33 million barrels a day through October this year, even as its largest field declines.

Pemex’s Cantarell offshore oil field, which accounts for about 60 percent of oil production, is forecast to produce 1.9 million barrels a day in 2006, a 6 percent decline from 2.03 million barrels a day so far in 2005, Pemex said in an e-mailed statement. Pemex forecasts Cantarell will produce 1.68 million barrels per day in 2007 and 1.43 million barrels daily in 2008. The decline in Cantarell’s production will be made up with investments in other oil fields, including Ku-Maloob-Zaap, Crudo Ligero Marino and Complejo Bermúdez, Pemex said. Pemex Chief Executive Officer Luis Ramírez has called on congress to allow the company to form partnerships with foreign oil companies to help drill deepwater oil deposits in the Gulf of Mexico and head off a decline in total oil production. …
(9 December 2005)

See also:

The Cantarell super field collapses

David Shields, Crisisenergé

Cantarell, el colapso
Tomado del diario Reforma.

El colapso de Cantarell será peor de lo que se pensaba. La caída de la producción petrolera en ese yacimiento súper gigante será de tal magnitud que, dentro de 3 años, estará aportando sólo la cuarta parte de sus niveles recientes de producción. Esto se desprende de un análisis recién concluido, que revela que el año próximo Pemex Exploración y Producción (PEP), no podrá lograr sus metas de producción.

Para los años 2007 y 2008 pronostica un desplome de los volúmenes obtenidos, lo cual obligará a reducir drásticamente las expectativas del país en cuanto a exportación de crudo y los ingresos petroleros. Este nuevo análisis informa que como escenario mas probable en los próximos 3 años la producción en ese yacimiento, que es el sostén de PEMEX, caerá desde niveles recientes superiores de 2 millones de barriles diarios (b/d) a solo 700 mil b/d como promedio en el 2008 y a 520 mil b/d al primero de enero de 2009. …
(6 December 2005)

Shell’s Oman Oil Output to Drop a 5th Year
‘to extend reserves’

Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Europe’s second- largest oil company, expects production from its venture in Oman will drop for a fifth year as it cuts costs and drills fewer wells to prolong the life of its fields.
Petroleum Development Oman, which pumps 90 percent of the nation’s oil, expects output to fall by 5 percent to about 600,000 barrels a day by next year before recovering after 2008, when projects to revive supplies from existing wells go online, John Malcolm, Petroleum Development’s managing director, said in a speech to be given today in Muscat, Oman’s capital.

“We do no favors to Oman in going all out in one year to get a feast of oil only to be followed by a year of famine,” he said, according to a copy of his speech. The company will cut back drilling in preference of injecting water and steam into the ground to flush out hard-to-get oil, he said. Oman is the largest oil producer in the Persian Gulf that’s not a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The nation wants to offer other international oil companies a bigger share of its reserves, eroding Shell’s position, in return for investment to help reverse a nationwide decline in output.

Occidental Petroleum Corp., the fourth-largest U.S. oil company, replaced Shell as the government’s main foreign partner to boost production from its sixth-largest deposit to 150,000 barrels a day, from about 10,000 barrels in May. The government wants to introduce more competition among companies to help revive output. The monarchy, ruled by Sultan Qaboos bin Saeed since he deposed his father in a bloodless coup in 1970, relies on oil revenue for as much as 75 percent of its export earnings and 40 percent of its gross domestic product, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. Oil production, including crude oil and condensate, fell 5.4 percent to 782,480 barrels a day through August of this year from the same period last year, the Ministry of Economy said. Oman may have less than 20 years left as a major oil exporter if output keeps declining at the same pace and no new reserves are found, the U.S. Department of Energy said. Shell is the largest foreign shareholder in Petroleum Development Oman, with a 34 percent stake.
(5 December 2005)

Coal Producers Tired Out

W.D. Crotty, MotleyFool
In the past year, we’ve had companies attribute unhappy results to everything from bad weather to high gas prices. But Fording Canadian Coal Trust (NYSE: FDG) has found a new cause for concern: a shortage of tires. The company is reporting that it expects coal supply to be restricted due to a significant global shortage of haulage truck tires, expected to continue into 2007.

A Web search on tire shortages unearths reports from as far back as April that industrial-use tires were in short supply because of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars and explosive growth in China and India.

Just to see what tire manufacturers were doing, I went to Goodyear’s (NYSE: GT) website and read through its turnaround strategy. I didn’t find a word about industrial tires, although Goodyear is reporting strong overall results after years of earnings woes. There are quotes from Goodyear in newspaper stories, however, saying the company is aware of the need and intends to increase production.

The tire shortage may actually be good news for coal producers. Arch Coal’s (NYSE: ACI) latest quarterly report states that coal consumption appears to be outstripping coal production for the third straight year. That should continue if tire shortages curtail production at producers like Fording. And if the tire shortage does last into 2007, it might keep coal prices elevated as well. …
(9 December 2005)

A shortage of heating pellets

Steve Ference, CapitalNews
“I’ve heard a lot of people asking for pellets,” said Johnstown resident Bruce Pettit. Pettit has asked for pellets too, after buying a stove earlier this year. “When we found out what the cost of heating would be for a year even at the prices then, it made tremendous sense to us,” he said.
The problem? Pellet stoves made sense to so many people hoping to save money by avoiding oil that compressed sawdust is in short supply. Home Heating Headquarters Manager David G. Ambrosino said. “We’re kind of at an energy crunch type thing with the pellets.” Ambrosino said the stove company he works with has seen sales jump 300 percent, selling 80,000 more stoves nationally than expected, and leading to some unintended consequences.

“That accounts for 240,000 extra tons of pellets,” he said. Customers have seen pellet prices jump from $3 to $7 or more for a 40 pound bag, and stores are limiting pellet purchases. “Some are doing five bags. Here at Home Heating we’re doing 10 bags to our customers who have purchased a stove,” said Ambrosino. That means others have to look elsewhere for pellets, though Ambrosino said people should stay warm if they only take what they need. “I think we will be okay. The main thing is don’t panic,” he said.

So what’s the bottom line? Well, a few months ago you could expect to heat your average home with about $500 worth of pellets for the year. Now that price is up to $750, but Ambrosino said that’s still cheaper than heating your home with oil. Pettit said, “The only thing I hope is that demand doesn’t drive up the price for next year.” All of this fueling concerns about ever-increasing heating bills, whether using oil or not.
(5 December 2005)