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Shoulder Season
James Howard Kunstler, blog
America is on vacation from its financial, fiscal, and economic problems, having left the centers of power in Wall Street and Washington for a Nantucket-of-the-mind …
This sort of euphoria is actually an alarming pre-crash symptom, in this case of a patient (the US) entering the terminal phase of sclerosis. Our society and all its playerz — especially the appointed communicators — just can’t fathom the reality of the threats we face, which are 1.) the loss of primary energy resources, 2.) the loss of technological potency, and 3.) the loss of a comfortable standard of living.
As the boys over at the Financial Sense News Hour podcast have been saying for months, we’re caught in a paradigm shift and we’re trying desperately to prove (to ourselves) that we can get back to the way things used to be. This is a broad cultural phenomenon and helps to explain why even the greenest captains of environmentalism strive to find groovy new ways to run all our cars, while their counterparts on Wall Street strive desperately to salvage a set of “innovative” financial rackets based on getting something for nothing. It also explains the foolishness of the “drill drill drill” crowd, which believes we could be back to 99-cent gasoline if only Exxon-Mobil were allowed to prospect offshore where the codfish used to swim. (By the way, I’m in in full favor of granting them permission to do so, if only to put an end to this foolish debate.)
Reality, meanwhile, strives to take us in another direction. Our destination is a far less complex society in a larger, rounder, and less economically-integrated world. We will be leaving a lot of our technological comforts behind, staying closer to home, living in smaller cities and reactivated small towns, working the land more intensively to produce the food we need, and possibly organizing our governance at something less than the continental scale our dwindling riches used to afford. That is, if we’re lucky enough to avoid the real possibility of social disorder and violence that would attend a fullblown economic collapse scenario. …
(11 August 2008)
Colorado shines in the solar rush
Sharmila Devi,The National (Arab Emirates)
Heightened ecological awareness and supportive policies by the state have made Colorado a leader in renewable energy in the US, standing in stark contrast to political bickering by many in the federal government in Washington.
Many residents are rushing to install solar panels before the end of this year, when federal production and investment tax incentives run out because Congress has been unable to pass a new bill this year for all the bipartisan stalling.
Energy independence has become an increasingly important issue in the presidential campaign, with both Barack Obama, the presumptive Democrat candidate, and John McCain, his Republican counterpart, promising to help US residents ease the pain of high oil prices. But solar advocates said the industry is suffering in the meantime.
“It’s pretty crazy that Congress is not extending the tax credits because of its inability to put aside bipartisan politics,” said Brad Collins, executive director of the American Solar Energy Society, which is based in Colorado and groups scientists, engineers and other professionals in the solar field.
(10 August 2008)
What strikes me most is that the article on renewables was written by a journalist from the Arab Emirates. Is the paper trying to send a message to the population about the need to transition to renewables? -BA
The Perfect (Economic) Storm
Ron Cooke, Global Public Media
When two or more storm cells come together and then form a larger and more violent storm, the event is often called a “Perfect Storm”. The reference is to the increased ferocity of the combined cells as drenching rain, high winds and rolling gray clouds cover the landscape. It is an event fit for neither man nor beast.
That reference came to mind when I wrote the scenarios for Oil, Jihad and Destiny. “What is the worst case scenario?”, I wondered. “What is the probability it could happen?” Although the “Perfect Storm” scenario is discussed in my book, I did not publish the results of my analysis. I could not bring myself to believe an economic catastrophe of that magnitude was probable.
No more. All of the elements are in place. This storm has begun.
Storm Cell One: Higher Oil Prices
During a presentation on energy and economics last fall, someone asked me if we were headed for a recession. “Yes,” I replied, “we should be in a recession right now.”
My response, of course, was based on a previous analysis of the link between oil consumption and the price of oil, versus the occurrence of past recessions1. In theory, the American economy should have been reacting to higher oil prices the way it had in several past recessions. But according to the Bureau Of Economic Analysis in Washington, America’s economy was still growing – however poorly.
Puzzled by that discrepancy, I did the research and analysis for three other essays …
(10 August 2008)
Fuel Costs Boost Conservation Efforts; 7 in 10 Reducing ‘Carbon Footprint’
Gary Langer, ABC News
High energy prices are double-teaming with environmental concerns to prompt broad conservation efforts, with seven in 10 Americans saying they’re trying to reduce their “carbon footprint,” chiefly by driving less, using less electricity and recycling.
Sixty-four percent of Americans now rate “finding new energy sources” as more important than improving conservation – indicating the level of concern raised by the current energy situation.
More PhotosMore controversial are policy responses to the nation’s energy problems: Majorities in this ABC News/Planet Green/Stanford University poll support oil drilling in protected coastal and wilderness areas…
…Attitudes about global warming split along partisan and ideological lines; for instance, 53 percent of Democrats call it a very serious problem, compared with one in five Republicans. Concern also is higher among women, younger adults and non-whites, and lower among men, whites and evangelical Protestants.
Women, notably, are much more likely than men to think the environment is in poor shape (63 percent vs. 47 percent), to think that global warming is caused by human activity (64 percent vs. 52 percent) and to say it’s personally important to them (72 percent vs. 59 percent).
Contrary to some suggestions, concern about global warming is lower among evangelical white Protestants (who are disproportionately Republicans and conservatives). They’re less apt than other Americans to see global warming as very serious (26 percent vs. 40 percent), to say it’s personally important to them (35 percent vs. 48 percent) or to say the government should be doing more about it (46 percent vs. 64 percent).
(9 August 2008)
Some rather contradictory figures in here mostly dictated by potential economic impact.-SO
