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The (Not So) Invincible Society
Kurt Cobb, Scitizen
Policymakers and the public think of modern industrial society as being resilient and durable. Are they right?
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It is an article of faith that modern industrial society is robust and resilient, that any setbacks will be temporary, and that we can look forward to an ever-increasing standard of living. And, this article of faith makes it difficult to discuss society’s vulnerabilities to collapse in any serious way in policy circles.
Popular culture adds to the illusion. The enduring fantasy embedded in the many iterations of the original Star Trek television series is that humans will soon be a space-faring species. The hidden and never-discussed prerequisite, however, is limitless, cheap energy. This also turns out to be the assumption behind contemporary projections of ever-increasing prosperity.
Our failure to wean ourselves off finite fossil fuels is a major vulnerability. But our vulnerabilities go beyond energy. The complex networks that allow are society to function may not be as resilient as people generally believe. Harrison Browne in his 1954 book, “The Challenge of Man’s Future,” painstakingly lays out a path to a sustainable industrial society and then concludes that the most likely trajectory for industrial society is a reversion back to agrarian society. He reasons that if a significant portion of the complex, interdependent systems that make up our society fail, society will collapse. And, if that happens, it would be all but impossible to restart industrial society. He argues that industrial society relies on the continuous operation of these systems to obtain essential minerals from very lean ores using copious amounts of energy, energy procured using these same complex systems.
(3 November 2008)
Are Human Beings Hard-Wired to Ignore the Threat of Catastrophic Climate Change?
Lisa Bennett, Greater Good via Alternet
Three years ago, I became obsessed with global warming. Practically overnight, my worries about its potential effects outstripped my worries about so many other national and global issues, even personal ones.
Indeed, as the mother of two young boys, I began to think it a bit crazy that I attended to every bump and scrape on my children’s little bodies and budding egos, but largely ignored the threat likely to put sizeable areas of the world, including parts of the coastal city where we live, underwater within their lifetime.
That year, 2005, marked a turning point for many people. After decades of observation, speculation, and analysis, the world’s climate scientists had reached a consensus, and increasingly the general public was accepting it. As USA Today reported, “The Debate is Over: Globe is Warming.”
The next step, scientists advised, was action. We needed to take significant and urgent steps to cut our dependence on fossil fuels by 25 percent or more, something NASA’s top climate scientist, James Hansen, said we had only a decade to do if we were to avoid the great global warming tipping point-that level at which increased temperatures would unleash unprecedented global disasters.
So how are we doing?…
(14 November 2008)
John Gray in Conversation (video)
FORA.tv
Celebrated philosopher and critic John Gray is one of Britain’s great thinkers. His books include Straw Dogs, Al-Qaeda and What It Means To Be Modern, and Heresies.
His new book is Black Mass: Apocalyptic Religion and the Death of Utopia, a powerful and frightening argument about how apocalyptic religion has returned as a major force in global conflict. He speaks with Alan Saunders – Sydney Writers’ Festival
Sydney Writers Festival
Sydney, Australia
May 24th, 2008
(November 2008 – just posted?)
John Gray occasionally writes about peak oil. No mention of it during this talk, which mostly concerns philosophy and history. -BA
Memories of the Depression Still Sear
Lucette Lagnado, Wall Street Journal
As hard times return, witnesses to the 1930s recall lessons they learned
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… Mr. Hague, 89, was just 10 years old during the Crash of 1929. His father was a prosperous small-town lawyer and the family led a relatively privileged life during the Depression years. Yet even as Mr. Hague found success as an editor and author he says he remained careful about food and money. He monitors the news intently, on the lookout for signs of “trouble.” Now that trouble has come, he says he wonders if younger generations have the mettle to survive tough times.
“We had unlimited prosperity for more than 60 years,” says Mr. Hague, who lives in an independent senior residence on Manhattan’s East Side. “I don’t know if people are ready for hard times.”
There are 11.5 million Americans who are 80 and older, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The period from the Crash of 1929 to the start of World War II shaped their lives, affected how they raised their children, and influences their reactions to today’s economic turmoil.
The memories aren’t all negative. For many, President Franklin D. Roosevelt “was like a god,” recalls Mr. Hague, and there was hopefulness amid the desperation. “People had confidence in the American way — which I am not sure they have now.”
(15 November 2008)
