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IEA report: “World Energy Outlook 2008”
International Energy Agency
The IEA officially released its long-awaited report on energy supplies “World Energy Outlook 2008.”
It has put online several documents relating to the report. The report itself is available for purchase:
- Press release
- Slides for Faith Birol’s presentation to the press (12-page PDF)
- Fact sheets (6-page PDF)
- Graphs (12-page PDF)
- Excecutive summary (13-page PDF)
- The full report (available for purchase)
(12 November 2008)
Some news reports (below) have already been posted. Analyses from the peak oil world are on the way. -BA
The Oil Drum’s first look at the IEA report
Nate Hagens, The Oil Drum
The 2008 IEA WEO – The Oil Drum Initial Review (Part 1 of a Series)
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Today, the world’s energy ‘watchdog’, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published their long awaited annual World Energy Outlook (WEO) for 2008. In stark contrast to bland-to-cornucopian supply commentary in past reports, the initial language in this years Executive Summary is of an urgent nature.
This report is a step in the right direction for conveying our rapidly deteriorating energy situation to world policymakers – the IEA should be commended for making the turn and finally acknowledging: costs, investment limitations, new capacity requirements, steep decline rates of existing wells, and externalities (in this case GHGs). In effect, this report shatters the global illusion that oil resources magically turn into cheap flow rates.
However, at first glance, the report’s details do not support the urgent tone of the beginning paragraphs.
Beginning tomorrow, The Oil Drum staff (the IEA/EIA’s energy watchdog…;-) will be running an ongoing daily ‘analysis/review’ of the new IEA outlook. Below the fold is an overview/introduction to this series.
… The (Initial) Bottom Line of the IEA WEO 2008 Report
Though it is clear there were many different factions and authors writing this report, about 1/2 in the urgent and 1/2 in the complacent camps, the general sea change in opinion, analysis and outlook is long overdue. The certainty of future oil supply painlessly matching demand for decades to come has been replaced with something closer to reality. However, as long time readers of this website are aware, the world energy situation is even worse the ‘best case’ scenario this IEA report has portrayed – more analysis to follow
In sum, recent events in the real economy have put us in the liminal space where drops in demand will temporarily exceed drops in supply. Our energy future is a battle being fought between depletion and investment/technology in a world that is not only interconnected and complex but increasingly fragile. Counterintuitively to most, the lower oil prices go and the longer they stay below $80-$100 per barrel, the steeper the fall off of the crude oil plateau will be, and the dimmer our energy future.
In sum, this Jekyll and Hyde IEA WEO 2008 report was needed 10 years ago. Uncertainty, error bands, black swans and the precautionary principle need to be terms injected into international energy discussions. Governments and decisionmakers should assume what is presented here is a ‘best-best case’, and start making urgent, difficult decisions with respect to social priorities.
As many know, without cheap and consistent energy availability, nearly all other social objectives cannot be met. Energy is everything.
(12 November 2008)
UPDATE (Nov 12). Added this item about 30 minutes after first posting. -BA
International Energy Agency warns of future oil ‘supply crunch’
Canadian Press
The International Energy Agency is calling for massive investment in producing more oil to prevent a supply squeeze in coming years, saying energy demand will rise 1.6 per cent a year on average until 2030.
The IEA’s scenario for energy demand has fallen due to the global economic slowdown and higher oil prices, but the agency stressed Wednesday that delay in spending on new projects could lead to a “supply crunch that could choke economic recovery.”
Project delays – and some cancellations – are happening as producers and refiners adjust to oil prices that have fallen more than 60 per cent since peaking above US$147 per barrel in July.
(12 November 2008)
Greenpeace: IEA falls short of an Energy Revolution needed to avert catastrophic climate change
Press release, Greenpeace
Amsterdam, International — Greenpeace has warned that the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2008 ‘business as usual’ approach will condemn the world to catastrophic climate impacts. Paying lip service to the climate change crisis, the IEA forecasts more fossil fuel consumption than the planet can handle, while promoting carbon capture and storage and nuclear power.
“The IEA report may see no shortage of oil and gas resources over the coming decades, but there is another resource which does have a limit – the world’s climate. The IEA has produced an example of what not to do. In failing to keep temperature rise below 2 degrees, it shows that in fact we should not be investing in new fossil fuel exploration and production infrastructure, but in renewable power and the smart use of energy instead,” said Sven Teske, Greenpeace International’s Senior Energy Expert.
The latest version of Greenpeace’s ‘Energy [R]evolution: A Sustainable World Energy Outlook’, produced in conjunction with the European Renewable Energy Council, shows how renewable energy, combined with greater energy efficiency, can reduce global energy-related CO2 emissions from today’s 28 billion tonnes to 20.9 billion tonnes by 2030 – half of the emissions from the IEA’s reference scenario in the same year. Using the same assumptions for economic growth, fuel costs and population development as the IEA, the Greenpeace scenario also includes long-term projections to 2050 – with a 50% CO2 cut and a complete fossil fuel phase-out by 2090.
(12 November 2008)
IEA doesn’t see peak oil by 2030
But energy group warns of under-investment
Steve Goldstein, MarketWatch
The International Energy Agency on Wednesday dismissed fears about peak oil, but the group said under-investment could lead to production troubles.
The IEA published the full report on its world energy outlook after releasing a summary last week.
“Although global oil production is not expected to peak before 2030, conventional crude-oil production is projected to level off toward the end of the projection period,” it said.
Canadian oil sands, extra heavy oil, gas-to-liquids and coal-to-liquids will have to make up the difference.
But it warned that OPEC countries will need to step up their investment campaign.
(12 November 2008)
Peak Oil: Get Ready for the Oil-Supply Crunch, IEA Says
Keith Johnson, Environmental Capital, Wall Street Journal
Lower oil prices these days are both a result of the economic slowdown and a possible cushion. But they could be a very mixed blessing.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency is worried about an oil supply crunch in coming years. It’s not due to geology—the IEA says the world has plenty of oil, in one form or another. But trying to match oil supplies to growing oil demand in coming years is a Herculean task made all the harder by cheapish crude prices which make oil companies think twice about new investments.
The biggest challenge will come between 2010 and 2015, the IEA says in its 2008 World Energy Outlook. For the next couple of years, the oil pipeline is well supplied. But that trails off after 2010. By 2015, the world needs to find an additional 7 million barrels per day of oil above and beyond all the exploration projects currently in the pipeline. And to get that oil to market by the middle of the decade, those exploration projects need to get started now.
But now’s not a good time.
(12 November 2008)
