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Shannon Parry: making Santa Monica a sustainable city in the face of peak oil and global warming (VIDEO)
Marc Strassman, Etopia
On August 7, 2006, Shannon Parry, Environment Analyst, Sustainable City Program, City of Santa Monica, California, recorded an in-depth interview as a guest on the now-launching Sustainability Channel to talk about efforts by this city on the western edge of North America, through its Sustainable City Plan, to make Santa Monica a sustainable city, whatever the schedule for the arrival of peak oil.
While not yet “ready for anything,” Santa Monica is ready for a lot
What emerged during this interview with Ms. Parry was that Santa Monica doesn’t need to create a separate plan or commission to deal with the threat of peak oil because its long-in-place (since 1994) and recently-upgraded (2003) sustainability program/plan has already given it the tools it needs to deal comprehensively with the inevitable and possibly imminent peaking of the Petroleum Age.
If peak oil arrives sooner rather than later, Santa Monica is in a good position to shift into an “overdrive mode of sustainability planning” as an effective way of responding to such a development, having already laid the groundwork for such an accelerated approach through the creation of institutional structures, a mind-set attuned to sustainability among its residents, and the momentum and experience gained through its previous successes in this area.
You can watch and listen to the two parts of this video interview with Shannon Parry by clicking on the appropriate menu buttons in the syndicatable Brightcove player containing The Sustainable Cities Channel, below.
(14 Aug 2006)
CERA study disputes peak-oil arguments
Paula Dittrick, Oil & Gas Journal
HOUSTON, Aug. 14 — World oil and NGL production capacity could increase by as much as 25% by 2015, with NGLs and extra-heavy oils accounting for much of the capacity growth, said Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Cambridge, Mass.
The analysis forecast productive capacity rising to 110 million b/d in 2015 from 88.74 million b/d in 2006. CERA said its reference case depends upon high investment levels.
In a report entitled, “Expansion Set to Continue, Global Liquids Capacity to 2015,” CERA studied field-by-field data and development plans of major international oil companies.
… Based on their analysis, Jackson and Esser conclude that the data reinforce CERA’s view that the specter of “peak oil” is not imminent, nor is the start of an “undulating plateau” pattern of supply capacity.
Kjell Alecklett of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO) called CERA’s report “over optimistic.” He said the extrapolation to 2015 assumes “enormous success in new discoveries and that these discoveries can be put in production very quickly.”
Alecklett said: “Some people say that ASPO is pessimistic when it comes to future supply. We think that we look at the future in a realistic manner. It is clear that CERA is very optimistic, and the fact that they believe that OPEC will increase the production capacity with 12.9 million b/d during the next 9 years is an example of optimism.”
(14 Aug 2006)
A longer article on the CERA report than the other articles that have appeared in the press. The online article should be available to the public for about a week.
The price of crude can only rise while supplies dwindle worldwide
Mathew Maavak, The Korea Herald
Crude oil has reached a point where the skeptics of yore have become the proselytes of tomorrow, readying the world when crude tops $100 per barrel.
That day is not far away though few saw it coming.
Only just six years back, crude was hawked off for as low as $10 per barrel, when producers pumped out whatever they could for hard currency in the aftermath of a serpentine financial crisis that slithered its way from Mexico to East Asia, emptying national coffers in the process.
The barrel has steadily risen from its Davy Jones Locker to reach the $75 average today. At every stage of the climb – $40, $50, $60 and $70 – threshold limits were tested and passed, industries kept firing on all cylinders, and the global economy remained resilient.
The global economy will still stand if oil reaches $80 next week. We are ready for it; for the climb has been steady and soft, preparing us for the day as if tomorrow never comes.
Tomorrow, however, does come, at an expense of a finite resource that took aeons to form.
Oil can only climb up as the planet has already consumed more than half of its available reserves, and incremental demands by the day will result in higher prices and a supply crunch. This is phenomenon known as Peak Oil or “Hubbert’s Peak.” …
The epicenter, from which major oil shocks ripple through the earth, lie in the oil and gas vault of the Persian Gulf.
Herein lies the Gordian Knot of mayhem, collusion and terror.
Saudi Arabia is the world’s top producer of oil (10mbpd), but it is Iran (3.8mbpd) which effectively controls the narrow Straits of Hormuz, through which tankers carry 20 percent (15 to 16mbpd) of the world’s oil.
Despite their overt Islamic solidarity, Saudi Arabia which follows the Sunni branch of Islam is a sworn enemy of Iran, guardian of the Shi’ite branch. Militants from both branches are engaged in a low-intensity civil war in Iraq, and this kept under controlled conditions – at gunpoint – by 140,000 U.S. soldiers.
Despite having its soldiers pinned down by Sunni militants, Washington plans to overthrow the regime in Tehran, purportedly over the latter’s nuclear enrichment program. An outright invasion would be catastrophic to the global economy, not when the 1.0 to 1.3 million barrels of oil cushion is expected from Saudi Arabia. Iran has the capacity to take out 10-20 million barrels per day by destroying oil infrastructures in the Gulf Arab states, and sink enough tonnage to make the Straits of Hormuz impassable.
An Iranian response has to be quick, brutal and bloody as paradoxically, it is net importer of gasoline. Years of U.S.-led sanctions have left the Iranian oil complex in a decrepit state.
But this does not stop each party from laying a snare for each other. The proxy war fought in Lebanon was yet another manifestation of this game. If Washington thinks it has knocked a pawn or two from Tehran’s game plan through the proposed deployment of 15,000 U.N. sanctioned troops in Southern Lebanon, it should think again.
Then of course, there is China which supplies the finest weaponry in Iran’s arsenal. The world’s fastest growing economy, and its fastest growing market, has already locked and secured oil and other raw materials from some of the most despotic regimes on earth.
Beijing will not tolerate any disruptions to its precarious oil supplies. And neither would those who can be regularly spotted buying discounted Chinese products when they are not crying foul over Tiananmen Square.
China alone accounts for 40 percent of global oil demand growth. The ratio between China’s GDP growth and demand growth for crude oil is an alarming 10:9. On a worldwide basis, the ratio is 10:4.
If there is any disruption to oil supplies, China would be the first to reel, and that would be dangerous.
(16 Aug 2006)
Oil, water, weather crises will hit cities
JORGE BARRERA, Ontario Sun
Municipalities are facing a “perfect storm” once the era of cheap oil, cheap water and altered weather patterns hits with full force, says Ontario’s environmental commissioner.
In a chilling speech to municipal leaders yesterday, Gord Miller said municipalities are not ready for the massive effect on communities.
“We are entering a period of consequences,” said Miller. “Our present public policy is inadequate to deal with these immense problems that are upon us right now.”
Miller said that Ontarians’ consumption is growing by 3% a year. At that rate, the province would have to find four times the current electrical generation capacity to meet consumption needs in 23 years, he said.
“It can’t go on forever. Something is fundamentally flawed,” he said.
Miller said peak oil is going to create major upheavals.
“Our whole economic system is based on cheap oil,” said Miller. “There are 84 million barrels a day of oil consumed. What happens if you only produce 83 million? All of a sudden people start bidding and the price breaks free of the production curve and it gets worse and worse and worse.”
Miller said said the same logic applies to Ontario’s water supply.
And then there’s climate change. Engineers can no longer rely on historical weather patterns to design streets and bridges, Miller said.
“The design factors around these things are changing. Droughts, heat waves, violent storms, forest fires, floods — can your infrastructure handle it?” said Miller. “These are the predicted and actual impacts of climate change.”
(16 Aug 2006)
Economist reports Saudi oil production can continue unabated
Wikinews, the free news source you can write
In its August 10 edition, The Economist magazine asserts that Saudi Arabia can continue producing oil at its current production levels for 70 years, without having to look for another drop. Further, the magazine claims that the nation could find “plenty more if they look”, calling for privitisation of national oil companies to help increase oil production.
The language is provocative – the world has plenty of oil, and only requires sufficient investment and exploration to find it. This is a line that The Economist has held for some time, certainly since before its now infamous March 1999 issue proclaiming that we were “drowning in oil” and featuring a prediction of US$5 per barrel. That issue was followed by an embarrassing retraction in December of that year, as oil started its steady climb. It now sits above US$70 per barrel.
However, petroleum geologists and energy investment specialists maintain a different view of oil reserves. They say that there is a limit to what is in the ground, and further to that, a limit to how much of it we can retrieve even with advancing technology. Just how much is down there can’t be said with any certainty, for a variety of reasons. A big one is the suspicious reserves figures given by producers in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia. Since OPEC starting using a quota system based on reserves, the estimated reserves for member nations has magically risen, and even continued rising in the face of increased extraction from those reserves.
Amongst those who deal with the physical realities of oil fields, forecasts of a peak in production vary between 30 years, as the USA’s Energy Information Administration suggest, and now, as suggested by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas and other more pessimistic forecasters. A peak in production would then be followed by decline. Certainly, in the petroleum world, there is no serious suggestion of sustaining the current level of oil production for 70 years.
(14 Aug 2006)
