Insight and inspiration in turbulent times.
Richard Heinberg joins James Howard Kunstler, Nicole Foss, Dmitri Orlov and Noam Chomsky in a panel discussion. Reviewer: "These extraordinary clearseers analyse precisely the catastrophic crises which — amongst many other things — are bringing on the steady, relentless collapse of the US empire."
(Transcript and audio)
The New Year failed to ring in the customary changes this time round. The great economic hangover moves into its fourth year with many predicting that things will take a turn for the worse during 2012. Geopolitically, the standoff between the West and Iran escalated over the holiday, hoisting oil prices over $113/barrel once again.
The year ended with little change in the assessment for the prospects for global oil supplies. Despite all the hype concerning new oil finds and technological breakthroughs in oil production, these developments still are not contributing enough new oil to offset the annual decline of 3 million b/d from existing fields and the annual increase of circa 1 million b/d of new demand. The bottom line among those following this issue is that global oil production likely will start to decline in the next one to five years as depletion gets ahead of very-costly-to-produce new sources of “oil.”
A midweekly roundup of peak oil news, including:
-Developments this week
In a peak oil world, no further growth is possible. If China grows, somewhere Western consumption must shrink. And “shrinking” isn’t pretty says Jeff Rubin. He’s the former CIBC markets Chief Economist, speaking at ASPO 2011 in D.C., along with oil market guru Charles Maxwell. “Economy Past Peak Oil” panel plus Radio Ecoshock interview with ASPO Italy founder Professor Ugo Bardi (author of “The Limits to Growth Revisited”) on peak oil versus climate change.
– NYT: Oil Price Would Skyrocket if Iran Closed the Strait of Hormuz
– RT: Crude Plan: Iran war & double recession? (video)
– Iran could be bluffing in the strait of Hormuz – but can US risk calling it?
Let’s make this clear from the beginning: The Post Carbon Reader is not an easy read. Indeed, if you’re looking for a breezy take on the end of the world, I would instead recommend World War Z. But whereas Max Brooks’s novel is a gore-drenched take on the zombie apocalypse, I’d state that The Post Carbon Reader is much more horrifying. There is little to fear of a rise of the undead. But throughout the Reader’s 450+ pages, it becomes clear just how and in what manner we are collectively destroying our fragile planet. … That said, The Post Carbon Reader is an essential read, for no other purpose to have the quotable facts and information readily available.
The end of our industrial lifestyle paradigm will be dictated by Liebig’s Law, and by humanity’s response to its consequences. Unfortunately, it is impossible to know at this point which increasingly scarce nonrenewable natural resource (NNR) or NNR combination will ultimately prove to be industrialized humanity’s limiting factor.
Consequently, humanity’s global societal collapse may be triggered by scarcity associated with one or more NNRs other than those commonly considered “most critical” to the perpetuation of our industrial lifestyle paradigm—fossil fuels, or oil specifically. After all, the space shuttle Challenger disaster was caused by a faulty o-ring.
– Nigeria union chiefs urge general strike amid fuel protests
– Global unrest: how the revolution went viral
– Hungary set for protests over constitution
– Stephen Cohen: Russian Protests and the Soviet Union’s Afterlife
– Goldman Sachs thinks we’re close to maximum oil pumping capacity
– Robert Rapier Soliciting Feedback for His Energy Book
– University of Alaska Fairbanks professor predicts spike in oil prices
– UK “Energy trends” bulletin available
– EU agrees Iran oil embargo
– Iran’s Real Weapon Of Mass Destruction Is Oil Prices
– Iran prepares bill to bar foreign warships from Persian Gulf
– Obama Seeks to Distance U.S. from Israeli Attack (Iran)
– Iran’s new show of force
– Tehran Times: U.S. presence in Persian Gulf is damaging: Iran defense minister
– Nuclear Fuel Test Won’t Hasten Iran Bomb: Experts
– NYT: Iran Warns the United States Over Aircraft Carrier
– Oil up 3 percent on Iran warning and U.S., China data
– Iran risk accounts for up to $10-15 of oil price: Reuters’ Kemp (video)
– Crude Oil Prices Could Rise This Year, But Prices Could Be Very Volatile
– Conflict in Straits of Hormuz? $200 a Barrel Oil?
