Insight and inspiration in turbulent times.
Contrary to the views of some ill-informed journalists and politicians, there are many places where the international momentum is swinging rapidly towards — not away from — a swift transition to a post-carbon economy.
G8 leaders meeting last weekend in Camp David will have been cheered by the recent slide in oil prices – albeit that the weakening in price is largely a consequence of the increasingly dire economic news. Nevertheless the group issued a statement to the effect that should the price start heading back in the other direction they will be calling on the IEA to take action…
Whenever the U.S. supply of imported oil is threatened with interruption (or if the U.S. economy should recover much), the global marketplace bids up the oil price, and the politically sensitive price of gasoline will rise in step and depress consumer spending. Whenever the world oil price is high enough, it can cause an economic crisis. In this case global demand may contract sharply, as it did in 2009. The price can never rise for long above what the global oil market can bear.
Between January 2002 and August 2008, the nominal oil price rose from $19.7 to $133.4 a barrel. This led to a large increase in oil revenues for oil exporters and a deterioration of the current account for oil importers. Between 2002 and 2006, net capital outflows from oil exporters grew by 348%, becoming the largest global source of net capital outflows in 2006 (McKinsey 2007).
Capital outflows from oil exporters therefore played an important role in the global liquidity glut during the build-up to the US subprime crisis.
There’s been a lot of excitement in the past year over the rise of North American oil production and the promise of increased oil production across the whole of the Americas in the years to come. National security experts and other geo-political observers have waxed poetic at the thought of this emerging, hemispheric strength in energy supply. What’s less discussed, however, is the negligible effect this supply swing is having on lowering the price of oil, due to the fact that, combined with OPEC production, aggregate global production remains mostly flat.
But there’s another component to this new belief in the changing global landscape for oil: the dawning awareness that OPEC’s power has finally gone into decline.
There are times, at least for me, when the fate in store for industrial society can be seen with more than the usual clarity. I’m thinking just now of the time I looked out a train window and saw an abandoned factory, not yet twenty years old, with foot-high saplings rising incongruously from the gutter around the roof; or of another time, in a weekend flea market here in Cumberland, when I found a kid’s book on space travel I’d loved as a child, flipped through the pages, and found myself face to face with the gap between the shining future we were supposed to have by now and the mess that was actually waiting for us when we got here.
A midweekly roundup of peak oil news, including:
-Developments this week
-Busting the carbon and cost myths of Germany’s nuclear exit
-The energy transition juggernaut
-Clean energy as culture war
The EIA helpfully produces a breakdown of the global liquid fuel supply into components. This allows us to distinguish change in the supply of “oil” – narrowly defined as crude oil plus condensates (hydrocarbons which come out of the ground as liquid) – from changes in other things (natural gas “liquids”, most of which are actually gases like ethane, propane, and butane, ethanol, and refinery volume changes.
-Read Chapter 2 “Peak Oil” in Peeking at Peak Oil
-Prepare to celebrate OPEC’s demise
-U.K. Climate Plan Set To Curb Impact Of Oil Shocks, Report Shows
A weekly review including:
-Oil and the Global Economy
-The EU Crisis
-Iran
-Quote of the Week
-Briefs
It was the enlightenment, certainly, through which a whole host of new political views about public voice and the independent integrity of the individual emerged into the mainstream, even if took another 150 years, or even 200, to work themselves out. And at the same time it was the beginning of the age of extraction, when humankind started to use the stored resources of the planet at scale for their profit and endeavour. Both of these ideas are still the dominant frames of our public discourse, certainly in the richer world, and shape (almost completely) competing arguments about sustainability.
