Oil

Highlights of the 2012 BP Statistical Review

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Last week the 2012 BP Statistical Review of World Energy was released. I always look forward to the release, because the data represent the most comprehensive, publicly available database on energy consumption and production statistics. I have now read through this year’s report, picking out what I believe are important trends and data points.

Peak oil: has it arrived?

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We don’t see a peak for the year 2000, nor we see it for 2005. If the peak had been in 2000 or 2005, we should be already seeing a significant production decline. What we see, instead, is a plateau that has been lasting for the past five years or so, interrupting the growth trend that had been the rule from 1983. So, no peak so far, but clearly “something” has been happening with oil production starting with the first decade of the 21st century, considering also the remarkable increase in oil prices of that period. But what’s happening, exactly? Where is the peak? Should we expect it soon, or is it delayed for a long time?

Modifying Hubbert’s model of peak oil to account for a rise in production due to higher prices

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Here I describe some interesting new research on modifying Hubbert’s model of peak oil to take into account the incentives for additional production that higher oil prices would be expected to bring.

The IMF research should help raise awareness of an issue that remains underappreciated by many economists, which is that we will eventually reach a point, and may have already, at which quite significant increases in price and improvements in technology can produce only modest increases in production, or may be insufficient to prevent outright declines in annual crude oil production levels.

ODAC Newsletter June 15

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This week saw the release of the annual BP statistical energy review. In the words of the press release 2011 was a year of “disruptions to supplies and ever-increasing demand”. The big stories for oil were supply disruption in Libya, a record average oil price of $100/barrel, an average annual Brent price rise of 40%, a decline in OECD consumption of 600,000 bpd, and an increase in US production of 275,000 bpd — the largest increase outside OPEC…

Peak oil – June 14

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-The future of oil prices – Chris Nelder
-World Economic Financial and Political consequences of the Post Peak Oil Era: Chris Sanders [video]
-‘Oil shock’ hitting consumer demand former Tesco CEO warns
-World oil reserves up 8 percent, supply fears persist