Nuclear

Calculating calamity: Japan’s nuclear accident and the “antifragile” alternative

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It is irresponsible to ask people to rely on the calculation of small probabilities for man-made systems since these probabilities are almost impossible to calculate with any accuracy. Natural systems that have operated for eons may more easily lend themselves to the calculation of such probabilities. But man-made systems have a relatively short history to draw from, especially the nuclear infrastructure which is no more than 60 years old. Calculations for man-made systems that result in incidents occurring every million years should be dismissed on their face as useless.

Fukushima: the nuclear martingale

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When we design machinery that is dangerous and prone to failure we try to reduce risks by tight regulations, specifics, and centralised control. Of course, these strategies are expensive and therefore are best implemented over large scales. So, we are raising the stakes by building bigger and more expensive systems in order to hedge the risk of failure. In the case of nuclear energy, the result is the concentration of power production in large plants. That strategy seems to work, within limits: on the average, the safety record of the nuclear industry is not bad. But when something goes wrong with a nuclear plant, it tends to go wrong in a big way, such as with Chernobyl and Fukushima.

ODAC Newsletter – March 18

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The earthquake and tsunami which ripped apart the northern half of Honshu in Japan on Friday has caused a massive humanitarian disaster and a nuclear emergency which may still develop into a major catastrophe. The wider knock on effects could be a backlash against nuclear power, and further global economic instability as a result of damage to what is the world’s 3rd largest economy. Meanwhile in Libya the civil war raged on, and in Bahrain protests became bloody as the government turned to military force and outside help to retain power.

Japan: Twilight of the nuclear gods

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As nuclear Japan melts down, America has the same reactors, the same government policy of withholding vital information (“to prevent terrorism”) about nuclear risk. Radio Ecoshock finds the key audio clips from nuclear critics long banished to the media wilderness – plus interviews with Nicole Foss from “The Automatic Earth” (who is a trained and published nuclear expert!) and Shawn Patrick from Greenpeace. These are American reactors from GE, all promoted as “fail-safe” answers to future energy. Now we see (again) what happens when reactors go wrong. Will the Japanese people now demand renewables? Could this tragedy lead to a burst of clean energy innovation?

Japan’s once-powerful nuclear industry is under siege

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Once hailed for enabling the post-war renaissance, construction — including construction of nuclear power plants — has become a juggernaut. Astonishingly, tiny Japan, smaller than California, recently boasted the largest construction industry in the world. (It now rates third, behind China and the U.S.) To maintain its hegemony, its lobby has run advertising campaigns identifying nature as “the enemy,” tapping into fears of earthquakes, tsunamis, and typhoons.

Proposal for Fukushima-I post-accident scenario analysis

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A retired nuclear scientist gives his take on the events in Japan and the possible dangers to Americans.:

“One possibly worrisome long-term scenario is that the Fukushima-I plant is RIGHT on the Japanese east coast. I wondered about ocean currents and where they might deliver any radiation entering the ocean, AND what uptake and concentration mechanisms might be operable in sea-life in the various ocean ecosystems.

“The contaminants move through the ocean’s various food-chains, ultimately to species humans eat, potentially accumulating near the top of the food chains.

“Here on the U.S. coast we have become attuned to food-chain concentration of mercury in aquatic and other life, although I have no knowledge of the environmental pathways. Are we facing the possibility of a similar problem with some radioactive and heavy element species one, two, or three decades hence? Could my children’s salmon contain Japanese reactor fission products?”

The limits of incantation

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From the Fukushima nuclear crisis to the civil war in Libya, a rising spiral of troubles that may just mark a new phase in the predicament of industrial society is being met more and more often with what amount to incantations. As something of a specialist in incantations, the Archdruid suggests that something more practical may be needed just now.

The great energy rethink: Lessons from Japan and the neighborhood

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As if we really required more prompting, the unfolding nuclear accidents in Japan are confirming what we must do. When a disaster strikes, the most urgent response is to help those who are suffering, prevent further calamities, and clean up the messes—it’s a time to get busy. But the next critical step is to figure out what we might do differently—it’s a time to take a step back and contemplate how we got where we are and where we might go from here. With each passing day, it is becoming increasingly clear that we need to rethink where and how we get our energy supplies.