Geopolitics & Military

A geopolitical tsunami: Beyond oil in world civilization clash

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Less developed countries have set their will towards becoming industrialized. But, the stark facts of oil depletion present barriers to thwart the universalization of economic development. This may facilitate civilization clash, as each political bloc frantically strives to secure a reliable supply of oil at the best price.

No different this time

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Arguments for the more extreme scenarios of global collapse in the wake of peak oil, climate change, and the like routinely insist that the current situation cannot be judged according to the standards of history. The aftermath of an actual example of collapse — the fall of the Soviet empire — suggests otherwise.

Note to Biden on the Russian energy weapon

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Russian behavior is driven to a large extent by the personal strategies and interests of a few individuals at the very top. There is no overarching geopolitical plan, but a lot of political infighting and short term asset-grabbing strategies. That may be even more worrying in itself than purposeful strategies to use the “energy weapon”, but the motivations are different. It is true however that the global energy situation allows Russia to be a lot more assertive, or even brutal, on the international stage, and there’s little that can be done about that … [There is something that] Europe can actually do: it controls its own demand, and should focus its efforts on that.