Geopolitics & Military

Ukraine-Russia: some background and context

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Worries about Russia or Gazprom using the “gas weapon” against Europe are misplaced. In their official capacity, both are keenly aware of their absolute dependency on exports to Europe for a huge chunk of the country’s income, and on the need for stable, reliable long term relationships to finance the investments needed in gas infrastructure (and they know their clients share that need). They are happy to play power politics with the West’s worries as this goes down well with their own domestic audiences, but fundamentally they will not rock the gas boat.

Forecast for 2009

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The big theme for 2009 economically will be contraction. The end of the cheap energy era will announce itself as the end of conventional “growth” and the shrinking back of activity, wealth, and populations. … My hope for the year, at least for my own society, is that we will transition away from being a nation of complacent, distracted, over-fed clowns, to become a purposeful and responsible people willing to put their shoulders to the wheel to get some things done. My motto for the new year: “no more crybabies!”

Shia Islam and oil geopolitics

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In this paper it is shown that the concentrations of Shia Islamic peoples, in the Persian Gulf, are in the same areas as the oil fields and petroleum infrastructures. This is significant considering the growing influence these Persian Gulf oil producing countries will likely have due to their high levels of oil production and the possession of most of the world’s oil reserves. Considerable strategic geopolitical developments can be expected from this concentration of “petropower” in the Islamic Persian Gulf nations.