geopolitics

The first week of the new year saw much activity related to the energy markets. Oil prices continued to climb with NY futures closing at $62.01 on Thursday, the highest close since December 2014. The continuing fall in world crude stocks — US stockpiles were down by 7.4 million barrels last week—and a healthy global economy continues to push prices higher.  London futures are now at $67.66 a barrel and are closing in on $70.

US futures closed out 2017 above $60 a barrel for the first time since mid-2015. In the first half of the year, the OPEC/Russian production cut seemed to have little effect, but as the year wore on global crude inventories dropped. 

Last week started with a combination of the North Sea pipeline outage and a strike by Nigerian oil workers pushing prices up. In the background is the steady decline in world oil stocks that has convinced many that the oil glut will soon be over, and the steady increase in US shale oil production which has a few predicting that another price plunge is coming soon.

Oil prices currently seem on course to finish out 2017 with a second annual gain after the decision by OPEC to extend its production freeze through 2018. Last week Brent briefly climbed above $65 a barrel for the first time since 2015 due to the closure of the pipeline that brings some 455,000 b/d ashore from the North Sea fields.

In the wake of the OPEC decision to extend the production freeze, the oil markets were relatively quiet last week. Prices fell early in the week after the EIA reported a 6.78-million-barrel increase in the US gasoline inventory, but climbed later in the week on reports of near-record Chinese oil imports for November of more than 9 million b/d and concerns about the embassy-in-Jerusalem situation.

The long-discussed decision by OPEC and its collaborators on whether to extend their production freeze to the end of 2018 came last week and to nobody’s surprise was unanimous. After three months of hype, hints, rumors, and speculation, and a nearly $10 a barrel increase in oil prices, the matter is settled for another year.

Oil prices leveled off last week with New York futures closing at $56.74, up more than $20 a barrel since June.  Brent closed about $7 higher at $63.52. As has become normal these days, multiple factors impacted the oil prices last week pulling the markets in both directions.

The price surge, which began in mid-September, continued last week with NY futures closing Friday at $55.64 and London at $62.07. The $6.50 spread is leading to ever higher US exports which are now above 2 million b/d. Crude prices are at their highest level in over two years.

London futures closed above $60 a barrel last week for the first time since 2015. New York futures are now about $6 a barrel lower than London, increasing the incentive for foreign refiners to buy and export more US oil. 

Oil prices were little changed last week with New York futures trading around $52 a barrel and London around $57. Numerous factors continue to affect oil prices: Baghdad’s seizure of the Kirkuk oil fields and the consequent reduction in exports; a stronger US dollar brought on by the prospect of a tax cut; a falling US oil-rig count; a large drop in US crude inventories due to the recent hurricanes and unprecedented exports; the brightening prospects for a nine-month extension of the OPEC production freeze; and finally a warning that the China’s economy may not be doing as well as many believe.

Prices climbed last week with Brent up almost 3 percent to $57.17 a barrel and WTI up over 4 percent to close the week at $51.45. The major developments affecting prices was an unexpected jump in Chinese oil exports of 1 million b/d in September to 9 million and the announcement that the President would not certify Iranian compliance to the nuclear accord.