Peak oil notes – Aug 11
A midweekly update of peak oil news, including
-Developments
-The IEA’s Oil Market report
Fossil Fuels
A fifty million dollar tipping point?
At a press conference on July 21, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg announced that he was contributing $50 million to the Sierra Club’s Beyond Coal Campaign. Michael Brune, head of the Sierra Club, called it a “game changer”. It is that, but it also could push the United States, and indeed the world, to a tipping point on the climate issue. It is one thing for Michael Brune to say coal has to go, but quite another when Michael Bloomberg says so. Few outside the environmental community know who Michael Brune is, but every business person knows Michael Bloomberg as one of the most successful business entrepreneurs of his generation.
Haircuts for All . . . or Free Money?
To get past the wall of potential financial-monetary collapse, governments would have to resort to extraordinary emergency measures. In the best instance, this would create time and space to begin coming up with long-term, infrastructural responses to declining energy supplies and climate change—responses involving the redesign of transport systems, power generation and transmission systems, food systems, and so on. Of course, there is no guarantee that time, once gained, will be well spent. Nevertheless, in principle the wall can be traversed.
Canadian Government: Greenhouse gas emissions from tar sands may double by 2020
A newly-released report from the Canadian government reinforces the looming environmental impact of tar sands oil: As producers ramp up their activity, due in large part from a projected increase in demand from U.S. refineries, greenhouse gas emissions from Alberta’s tar sands could double by 2020 compared to 2010 levels.
Peak oil review – Aug 8
A weekly roundup of peak oil news, including:
-Oil and the global economy
-Pakistan
-China
-Quote of the week
-Briefs
Norway’s mad killer, private justice and the future of the state
Vigilante, klan, family and private justice, all are the path to barbarism today just as surely as they were when Aeschylus wrote the Oresteia. I will stand on the side of civilization for as long as I am able. The only alternative I see is what philosopher Thomas Hobbes called “a war of all against all.”
Book review: Beyond Oil Bust: Investigating Oil Economics, Society and Geopolitics
In their recently published book ‘Beyond Oil Bust’ two researchers of the University of Nicosia [Cyprus], James Leigh and Predrag Vukovic analyze the dramatic changes in the supply and demand of one of the most important sources of energy, oil, and they point to possible negative repercussions for the geopolitical map of the world. The authors first of all analyze the role of oil in the world economy starting from the first years of the twentieth century till today.
What are the Internet’s dependencies?
In my last post, I looked at the Internet’s energy use, broadly construed, and contended that we might offload other societal functions onto the Internet. In this post I’d like to consider in what ways that might be an unwise approach given the dependencies of the Internet.
ODAC Newsletter – Aug 5
An eleventh hour political deal on the US debt crisis this week turned out to be just a stepping stone in the ongoing economic and fiscal crisis. By Thursday markets were plunging again on fears that Italy or Spain may default, and on the growing anticipation that the US may be returning to recession after Q1 GDP growth numbers were revised down from 1.9% to 0.4%.
U.S. shale gas: Less abundance, higher cost
Shale gas has become an important and permanent feature of U.S. energy supply. Daily production has increased from less than 1 billion cubic feet of gas per day (bcfd) in 2003, when the first modern horizontal drilling and fracture stimulation was used, to almost 20 bcfd by mid-2011. There are, however, two major concerns at the center of the shale gas revolution. Despite impressive production growth, it is not yet clear that these plays are commercial at current prices because of the high capital costs of land and drilling and completion. Reserves and economics depend on estimated ultimate recoveries based on hyperbolic, or increasingly flattening, decline profiles that predict decades of commercial production. With only a few years of production history in most of these plays, this model has not been shown to be correct, and may be overly optimistic.
Peak oil perceptions: how Americans view the risks of major spikes in oil prices
A strong majority of Americans say it is likely that oil prices will triple in the coming five years and that such a tripling would be harmful both to the economy and to public health. Conservatives and those dismissive of climate change are among the most concerned by the threat of a major spike in oil prices, suggesting that a broad cross section of Americans may be ready to engage in dialogue about ways to manage the risks associated with peak petroleum.
The Peak Oil Crisis: Parsing the GDP
Lost in the furor over the debt crisis last week came the news that the U.S. economy expanded at an annual rate of only 0.4 percent in the first quarter and 1.3 percent in the second. As these numbers were well below what economists were expecting, the revelation that the US was not coming out of the “great recession” was quite a shock for those who have not been paying attention.
