Fossil Fuels

Ignoring Daniel Yergin

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Upon reading Yergin’s latest missive to the world’s policy elite, I found myself utterly bored. Could this man ever say something that would upset anyone other than a small group of activists who are extremely worried about oil supplies peaking before the end of this decade? I doubt it. He is paid to soothe, and these days so soothing is his writing that it should be placed next to the Sominex on the drugstore shelf.

No matter how well-reasoned one’s arguments are, as a tactical matter, a head-to-head confrontation in the media with Yergin will be a draw at best, but more likely a loss since reason is not what moves crowds. I agree that the fact that Yergin must now address peak oil explicitly and at length shows that he is actually on the defensive. Before, say, 2005 he wouldn’t have bothered even to mention it. This shows some progress, but not among those who matter most.

Daniel Yergin and peak oil – prophet or mere historian?

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In his glib dismissal of “peak oil” theory advocates, Yergin glosses or ignores a number of issues fundamental to the larger picture, for whatever reason, and these oversights should be considered in any evaluation of the piece and the peak oil “specter.” … Is the world then running out of oil then? No, but the increase in future global oil production will likely be modestly incremental and production could be thrown off course by any number of possible events, from an Israeli attack on Iran to (another, but successful this time) al Qaida attack on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq oil refinery.

35 reasons you might want to attend the 2011 ASPO-USA conference

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2. To make your voice heard in Washington about this issue – because we don’t have much time to begin to act, and every person here who says ‘I care deeply about this’ helps reinforce our message of the centrality of this issue.

3, To hear Wes Jackson talk about what we’re going to eat in the coming decades.

4. To get the latest in the emerging story on Shale Gas reality.

5. Because where else can you hear Nicole Foss and Jeff Rubin arguing deflation vs. inflation in the hallways?

6. Because our future depends on getting the word out and we need your help.

7. Because if you want to do with your retirement funds in this economy there are more experts here per square foot than anywhere else.

Peak oil as a thermostat

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Here’s a metaphor that may help in explaining why high oil prices are choking off economic growth for the U.S., and to a lesser extent the rest of the world as well. Think of the oil price as the mercury in a thermostat. As the economy heats up, the mercury expands (oil prices go up). This shuts off the furnace (the factors of production and consumption in the economy that make it grow). As the economy cools, demand for oil contracts and oil prices decline. But with oil now cheap, the factors of production kick in again; this causes oil prices to be bid up, and high prices once again choke off growth.

IEO 2011: a misleadingly optimistic energy forecast by the EIA

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The EIA published International Energy Outlook 2011 (IEO 2011) on September 19, showing energy projections to 2035. One summary stated, “Global Energy Use to Jump 53%, largely driven by strong demand from places like India and China.” It seems to me that this estimate is misleadingly high. The EIA is placing too much emphasis on what demand would be, if the price were low enough. In fact, oil, natural gas, and coal are all getting more difficult (and expensive) to extract.

Clarke’s fallacy

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In an epoch when financial pundits insist that manipulating the arcane symbols we call “money” can materialize petroleum in the bowels of the Earth, and a sizable fraction of Americans seem to think that chanting “Drill baby drill” as a mantra can accomplish the same improbable feat, it’s probably past time to discuss the interface between magic and peak oil. The Archdruid plunges in where rationalists fear to tread, with one word of caution–that word “magic” may not mean what you think it means.

There will be peak oil

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In his article in the Wall Street Journal, Daniel Yergin contradicted his own “There Will Be Oil” mantra by stating that discovery of new fields will be lower in future. With detailed knowledge of the world’s oil production one can actually show that part of Yergin’s discussion supports the fact that we are living in the era of Peak Oil. … The false image of the future that Daniel Yergin described can be compared to trying to steer a supertanker on a journey by only looking in the rearview mirror.

More thoughts on peak oil

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In Saturday’s Wall Street Journal, Daniel Yergin, chairman of IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates, gave his explanation of what’s wrong with peak oil. Here’s why I don’t find his analysis altogether convincing. … I submit that meeting the growing global demand for crude oil over the last five years has posed significant challenges for the world economy. And those who worry that the next 5-10 years might be like the last should not be dismissed as crackpots.