ODAC Newsletter – Oct 7

Deepening political anxiety about the economic crisis went public this week as Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England declared that “this is the most serious financial crisis at least since the 1930s, if not ever.” and David Cameron in his keynote speech to the Conservative Party Conference admitted that “the threat to the world economy – and to Britain – is as serious today as it was in 2008 when world recession loomed.”

The big picture view from Totnes

Totnes is a tiny town in a tiny, but extremely fortunate, bubble.Mythic home of Transition and Rob Hopkins, conjoined (for some, uncomfortably so) with Dartington and Schumacher College, we’re connected to the wider world in a way that few rural towns could ever hope to be.

Last night, the bubble burst.

The peak oil crisis: turmoil erupts

The Financial Times and Wall Street Journal have gone into full crisis mode with live blogs continuously reporting unfolding events. Equity markets are falling and London oil prices have been flirting with $100 a barrel for the first time since February. Talk of recessions, depressions, and even collapse of the euro zone is everywhere.

There is a definite possibility, if not a likelihood, that the innumerable debt crises when coupled with high and ever increasing energy costs could evolve into a major economic depression.

The ecocide trial

The UK Supreme Court hears appeal cases of huge constitutional significance, the outcomes of which often ricochet through the political arena, challenging the status quo, and shifting societal perceptions. It is fitting then, that on 30th September 2011 this grand building in Parliament Square provided a stage for the hearing of Regina v Bannerman & Tench. In this mock trial, two CEO’s stood accused of aiding and abetting the crime of ‘ecocide’. Currently just a conceptual crime, ecocide has been submitted to the UN for consideration as the fifth crime against peace (alongside genocide, war crimes, crimes of aggression and crimes against humanity).

Zalmay Khalilzad’s not-so-excellent Afghan oil adventure

The private investment firm of Zalmay Khalilzad, the former U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan and one of the most powerful diplomats in the George W. Bush Administration, is upset that a client has lost an oil deal in the country. Khalilzad’s son, Alexander Benard, is on the attack in Washington, in particular against the Pentagon, which he says acted against U.S. interests by not advising the Afghan government to favor Western companies in the deal.

Yes, refine oil sands crude right here

As soon as former premier Peter Lougheed notified the country that he thought the controversial Keystone XL pipeline was a bad deal for Alberta, the experts got all flustered and expressed their usual shock and dismay. Yet Lougheed’s declaration was elegantly simple. “We should be refining the bitumen in Alberta and we should make it public policy in the province,” he told the CBC.

Three strikes and you are out? – commentary

Daniel Yergin, whom the media have consistently designated as one of the world’s premier experts on energy matters–and who has a consistent track record of predicting higher oil production levels–has been very visible of late, especially with a in the Wall Street Journal, focused on why concerns about Peak Oil are misplaced. I thought that it would be useful to review how some of Mr. Yergin’s prior predictions regarding oil prices, production and exports in the 2004/2005 time frame have turned out, now that we have several years of post-2005 price, production and export data. Following is a brief summary.

The new recession

We’re at the end of growth. Growth of the economy, of consumption, of wealth. That this would happen isn’t news to those who’ve followed the writings of Meadows, Heinberg, and many others. What’s different now is that it may have actually arrived. I’d like to briefly look at our current situation in this context and synthesize the various ideas we explored in previous posts.