Insight and inspiration in turbulent times.
If you live in the United States and bother to turn on your television, it’s almost impossible to avoid ads telling you that natural gas from shale is both abundant and environmentally safe to develop. In these ads, so many happy people seem to enjoy burning natural gas that it would be difficult to imagine that their smiles might come to a premature end.
The Club of Rome, in collaboration with the Dept. of Environment and Energy of the City of Basel, Switzerland, recently convened a two-day international conference entitled The Future of Energy and the Interconnected Challenges of the 21st Century. The meeting was held October 17 and 18, 2011, at the Hôtel des Trois Rois in Basel. The conference -by invitation only- brought together a group of about 30 scientists from around the globe to discuss issues relating to resource depletion (Peak Oil) and climate change. Also present was a delegation of the Basel City government including the mayor and the minister for energy as well as several members of parliament. This report summarizes some of the outcomes of our discussions. [Cellier gives special attention to Switzerland and the city of Basel]
It seems to me that we may be reaching Limits to Growth,” as foretold in the book by the same name in 1972. The book modeled the consequences of a rapidly growing world population and finite resource supplies. A wide range of scenarios was tested, but the result in nearly all scenarios was overshoot and collapse, with the timing of collapse typically being in the 2010 to 2075 time period. The authors of Limits to Growth did not model the full interactions of the system. One element omitted was how debt would impact the system. Another item omitted was how prices for oil and other resources would affect the system.
Markets jumped on Thursday as the Eurozone patched together yet another deal to relieve its debt crisis. The high spirits saw 3% added to the FTSE amid hope that the deal will buy time to develop a permanent solution – if that is possible. Meanwhile the turbulence in the markets is being increasingly reflected in the streets through the growing Occupy movement, and continuing demonstrations in Spain and Greece…
Since the turn of the century, light oil, the highest quality hydrocarbon, has given civilization extraordinary energy gains and fueled all the trappings of modern life. But the rapid development of bitumen, one of the world’s most expensive and heaviest hydrocarbons, has clearly signaled the end of cheap oil. Like most unconventional fuels, bitumen takes more energy to make than conventional oil. In fact, bitumen production requires so much natural gas for processing and enrichment that it now accounts for one-fifth of Canada’s natural gas demand. The extravagant use of natural gas to produce a lower grade fossil fuel is unprecedented.
– EIA shale predictions need closer scrutiny, peak oil group says (ASPO-USA)
– Cassandra in the 21st century: ASPO-Italy 5 in Florence on Oct 28
– Saving energy: reliability of national energy flows (PDF) (Jean Laherrère of ASPO-France) – UPDATED
– Jeff Rubin: Peak Oil Is About Price, Not Supply
– Soaring prices push Queen close to ‘fuel poverty’
A midweekly roundup of peak oil news, including:
-Developments this week
A group of distinguished energy experts representing academia, industry, think tanks, and non-profit organizations will meet Wednesday, October 26, 2011 at 10:30 am in front of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to call for “Truth in Energy”regarding the possibility of a near-term oil crisis and long-term oil shortages. Following the news conference, the group will deliver a letter to DOE Secretary Steven Chu calling for urgent action to address this potentially critical threat to America’s economy and national security. The Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas USA (ASPO-USA, www.aspousa.org) organized the news conference.
Statements from petroleum geologists and analysts supporting ASPO-USA’s call for “Truth in Energy”regarding the possibility of a near-term oil crisis and long-term oil shortages:
Robert L. Hirsch (co-author of “The Hirsch Report”), Tom Whipple (former CIA analyst), Lt. Col. Daniel Davis (U.S. Army), Art Berman and Jeffrey J. Brown (petroleum geologists), as well as Jim Baldauf and Jan Lars Mueller of ASPO-USA.
The idea of the “energy trap” is that an increasing number of Americans are caught between the cost of gasoline and a systemic inability to stop driving their cars. In the last 60 years America has become a “motorized society” in which most of our citizens have become totally dependent on daily travel by car for their existence. Take away our cars and most of us would be hard pressed to reorganize our lives to provide for the essentials of life – earn an income, and provide food, shelter, and education for ourselves and our families.
There is a close link between growing debt and growing GDP. GDP growth is a gross measure; it does not take into account the amount of debt required to finance this growth. The increasing level of debt since 1945 has enabled economic growth to be higher than it otherwise would be, and has allowed the US to buy goods and services from abroad that we could not otherwise afford. If high oil prices cause economic contraction, as I believe is the case, we may see the situation reverse itself. Instead of rising debt leading to growing GDP and growing imports, we may instead see shrinking debt leading to declining GDP and declining imports.
Spreading outwards from its inception in the towns of Kinsale and Totnes, Transition has become a remarkable network with global reach. There are now practical projects under way on the ground all over the UK, and beyond. They demonstrate beyond doubt that the strengthening and diversification of local economies, underpinned by a commitment not to squander the Earth’s finite resources, is a highly effective strategy for the uncertain times we live in. They help take the fear out of the future, while offering people a renewed sense of belonging; of shared experience and goals; of a life that makes sense again.
