Fossil Fuels

Oil Shock – The No Growth World

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In a peak oil world, no further growth is possible. If China grows, somewhere Western consumption must shrink. And “shrinking” isn’t pretty says Jeff Rubin. He’s the former CIBC markets Chief Economist, speaking at ASPO 2011 in D.C., along with oil market guru Charles Maxwell. “Economy Past Peak Oil” panel plus Radio Ecoshock interview with ASPO Italy founder Professor Ugo Bardi (author of “The Limits to Growth Revisited”) on peak oil versus climate change.

The peak oil crisis: closing out the year

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The year ended with little change in the assessment for the prospects for global oil supplies. Despite all the hype concerning new oil finds and technological breakthroughs in oil production, these developments still are not contributing enough new oil to offset the annual decline of 3 million b/d from existing fields and the annual increase of circa 1 million b/d of new demand. The bottom line among those following this issue is that global oil production likely will start to decline in the next one to five years as depletion gets ahead of very-costly-to-produce new sources of “oil.”

Iran and the price of oil – Jan 4

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– EU agrees Iran oil embargo
– Iran’s Real Weapon Of Mass Destruction Is Oil Prices
– Iran prepares bill to bar foreign warships from Persian Gulf
– Obama Seeks to Distance U.S. from Israeli Attack (Iran)
– Iran’s new show of force
– Tehran Times: U.S. presence in Persian Gulf is damaging: Iran defense minister
– Nuclear Fuel Test Won’t Hasten Iran Bomb: Experts

Book Review: The Post Carbon Reader (Daniel Lerch interview)

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Let’s make this clear from the beginning: The Post Carbon Reader is not an easy read. Indeed, if you’re looking for a breezy take on the end of the world, I would instead recommend World War Z. But whereas Max Brooks’s novel is a gore-drenched take on the zombie apocalypse, I’d state that The Post Carbon Reader is much more horrifying. There is little to fear of a rise of the undead. But throughout the Reader’s 450+ pages, it becomes clear just how and in what manner we are collectively destroying our fragile planet. … That said, The Post Carbon Reader is an essential read, for no other purpose to have the quotable facts and information readily available.

There Is More to It than Oil

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The end of our industrial lifestyle paradigm will be dictated by Liebig’s Law, and by humanity’s response to its consequences. Unfortunately, it is impossible to know at this point which increasingly scarce nonrenewable natural resource (NNR) or NNR combination will ultimately prove to be industrialized humanity’s limiting factor.

Consequently, humanity’s global societal collapse may be triggered by scarcity associated with one or more NNRs other than those commonly considered “most critical” to the perpetuation of our industrial lifestyle paradigm—fossil fuels, or oil specifically. After all, the space shuttle Challenger disaster was caused by a faulty o-ring.

Energy – Jan 4

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– Goldman Sachs thinks we’re close to maximum oil pumping capacity
– Robert Rapier Soliciting Feedback for His Energy Book
– University of Alaska Fairbanks professor predicts spike in oil prices
– UK “Energy trends” bulletin available

Iran and the price of oil – Jan 3

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– NYT: Iran Warns the United States Over Aircraft Carrier
– Oil up 3 percent on Iran warning and U.S., China data
– Iran risk accounts for up to $10-15 of oil price: Reuters’ Kemp (video)
– Crude Oil Prices Could Rise This Year, But Prices Could Be Very Volatile
– Conflict in Straits of Hormuz? $200 a Barrel Oil?

Commentary: 2012 Predictions

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Last year ASPO-USA brought together a host of leading thinkers and their predictions for what to expect in 2011. While not all the predictions were on target, last year’s thinkers and leaders on energy issues were remarkably prescient, accurately anticipating among other things Arab Spring, the flow of energy prices, the re-emergent world food crisis, and the next step in the Transition movement. While foreseeing the future is a delicate exercise, there are real trends that are evident to eyes prepared to see. Here are their thoughts about the coming year. A Hopeful New Year to all from ASPO-USA!