Comments to the National Petreoleum Council

I see no plausible scenario in which a liquid fuels crisis arising within about 5 years can be averted on the supply side. This is too little time in which to compensate for declines by producing large quantities of liquids-from-coal or biofuels, if that is even possible. And that in turn means that demand-reduction strategies will be required in order to balance the available supply with requirements for transport fuels. The sooner such strategies are identified and implemented, the better the prognosis for societal adaptation.

The peak oil crisis: our 4 storms

Until last week, a good guess would have been that shortages in oil available for export would impact us first. This would be followed by economic decline, peak oil production, and finally a meaningful reduction in the burning of fossil fuel in response to global warming. News from the last few weeks, however, makes it look like more of a horse race.