Insight and inspiration in turbulent times.
Dr. John Mashey investigates the right-wing billionaires & corporations who pay alleged “charities”, bloggers, and old weathermen to deny climate science. Then Canadian journalist Margaret Munro on government muzzling scientists, plus an update from Union of Concerned Scientists Francesca Grifo on science freedom in U.S.
There is an old Russian saying: “If I had known where I would fall, I would have put down some straw there.”
At last year’s ASPO-USA conference, I wanted to correct what I see as a major flaw in the narrative of Peak Oil: the idea of a gentle, geologically-driven decline in oil production, which seems quite unrealistic. But I also wanted to look beyond it and sketch out some plans that would work after oil production dives off a cliff.
If we start setting aside a “Peak Oil Tithe” around when Peak Oil occurs, and if we deploy all that we’ve stockpiled when the fossil fuel economy can no longer support us, the resulting post-collapse economy is quite a lot smaller than the fossil fuel economy, but still large enough to support a significant portion of the current population, albeit at a much lower standard of living.
– Telegraph: Soaring oil prices will dwarf the Greek drama
– Geoengineering is going to happen. Desperate people do desperate things,
– Gas: climate panacea or industry propaganda?
– Gingrich is wrong on both gun racks in Chevy Volts and US energy policy
– La future rente des gaz de schiste: une malédiction à conjurer par l’intelligence
Alberta’s energy regulating agency yesterday held a technical briefing for media on the controversial practice of hydraulic fracturing. The picture that emerged was of a province playing catch-up with continental events that have other governments’ regulators and researchers on high alert.
Those frightening sounds, sights, and odors on the wind this foreboding snowless winter — like emanations from some back ward of a global psychiatric hospital — are the signs of a nation going completely mad. The traumatic rise of oil prices above the $100 level is one irritant, prompting a range of people-who-oughta-know-better to gibber and fulminate as though they’d been locked in the nation’s attic since Thanksgiving with nothing to do but play with a box of pencils. Meanwhile, several absurd “narratives” circulate around the mainstream media that are sure to cause this country more trouble — as any set of pernicious untruths will.
On Feb. 6th, Dr. Marcia McNutt, Director of the US Geological Survey, delivered a lecture at IU entitled “US Energy Outlook: Whatever Happened to ‘Peak Oil?’” According to the press release announcing this talk, “Not so many years ago, the public heard much concern that the nation, and the globe, had or was about to reach the point of peak oil production and would be on a downward trajectory due to declining resources. The current fact is that despite growing demand for energy, fossil fuel resources have never been higher.”
The main problem with Dr. McNutt’s talk is that it was based on a critical evasion. “Peak oil” is not simply about the resource base – it’s about the flow rate of petroleum. More ominously, it suggests that officials in positions of national responsibility cannot or will not level with the public.
Gas prices are going up again, resulting in a lot of discussion by people who don’t normally think about the oil markets, and therefore aren’t necessarily that well informed about the subject. As a certified oil-obsessive these last seven years, I thought I’d put up a “cheat sheet” with just the key graphs that would allow you to understand the major forces that affect the behavior of gas prices over time.
Rising oil and gasoline prices are of concern to many people today. I see three basic issues involved: “Stalled out” growth in world oil supply, concerns about Iran, and artificially low interest rates. In my view, the biggest contributor to high oil prices is the first one–stalled out oil supply. At this point, the interaction between oil demand and oil supply does not work in the way most people expect it would. Even if the price of oil rises, world oil production doesn’t increase by very much, if at all.
A weekly roundup of peak oil news, including:
-Oil and the global economy
-The Iranian confrontation
-Gasoline prices
-Quote of the week
-Briefs
Mainstream media outlets throughout the country are now reporting on record-breaking gas prices, the highest ever for this time of the year. Also making the rounds is the commonly cited prediction by former Shell CEO John Hofmeisterthat there is a better than 50 percent chance that gas prices will reach $5 a gallon by this summer in the U.S. This is in spite of the fact that U.S. oil production is up and oil consumption down, since 2008. What the media isn’t reporting on is the rest of what Hofmeister said in a recent peak oil themed debate he had with Tad Patzek on Feb. 14.
Until a miracle happens, scientists and some enlightened policy makers are trying to extend the age of oil, reduce greenhouse gases, and so on. But with the downside of Hubbert’s curve so close, and the financial system liable to crash again soon given the debt and lack of reforms, I don’t know how long anyone can stretch things out.
Iran’s announcement on Sunday that it was cutting off oil sales to Britain and France ahead of the EU embargo sent Brent crude oil prices soaring to a 9 month high of $124/barrel and an all-time UK high of over £78. The price of oil is now firmly back in the news alongside a rash of articles rejecting peak oil, declaring imminent US energy independence, and discussing the changing balance of geopolitical power away from OPEC…
