Fossil Fuels

A Fog of Mendacity

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Those frightening sounds, sights, and odors on the wind this foreboding snowless winter — like emanations from some back ward of a global psychiatric hospital — are the signs of a nation going completely mad. The traumatic rise of oil prices above the $100 level is one irritant, prompting a range of people-who-oughta-know-better to gibber and fulminate as though they’d been locked in the nation’s attic since Thanksgiving with nothing to do but play with a box of pencils. Meanwhile, several absurd “narratives” circulate around the mainstream media that are sure to cause this country more trouble — as any set of pernicious untruths will.

Rebuttal to the director of the US Geological Survey on peak oil

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On Feb. 6th, Dr. Marcia McNutt, Director of the US Geological Survey, delivered a lecture at IU entitled “US Energy Outlook: Whatever Happened to ‘Peak Oil?’” According to the press release announcing this talk, “Not so many years ago, the public heard much concern that the nation, and the globe, had or was about to reach the point of peak oil production and would be on a downward trajectory due to declining resources. The current fact is that despite growing demand for energy, fossil fuel resources have never been higher.”

The main problem with Dr. McNutt’s talk is that it was based on a critical evasion. “Peak oil” is not simply about the resource base – it’s about the flow rate of petroleum. More ominously, it suggests that officials in positions of national responsibility cannot or will not level with the public.

Why are gas prices high?

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Gas prices are going up again, resulting in a lot of discussion by people who don’t normally think about the oil markets, and therefore aren’t necessarily that well informed about the subject. As a certified oil-obsessive these last seven years, I thought I’d put up a “cheat sheet” with just the key graphs that would allow you to understand the major forces that affect the behavior of gas prices over time.

Why oil prices are so high: Production shortfall, Iran concerns, and low interest rates

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Rising oil and gasoline prices are of concern to many people today. I see three basic issues involved: “Stalled out” growth in world oil supply, concerns about Iran, and artificially low interest rates. In my view, the biggest contributor to high oil prices is the first one–stalled out oil supply. At this point, the interaction between oil demand and oil supply does not work in the way most people expect it would. Even if the price of oil rises, world oil production doesn’t increase by very much, if at all.

Gas prices set records, soon to reach new highs

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Mainstream media outlets throughout the country are now reporting on record-breaking gas prices, the highest ever for this time of the year. Also making the rounds is the commonly cited prediction by former Shell CEO John Hofmeisterthat there is a better than 50 percent chance that gas prices will reach $5 a gallon by this summer in the U.S. This is in spite of the fact that U.S. oil production is up and oil consumption down, since 2008. What the media isn’t reporting on is the rest of what Hofmeister said in a recent peak oil themed debate he had with Tad Patzek on Feb. 14.

Why do political and economic leaders deny Peak Oil and Climate Change?

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Until a miracle happens, scientists and some enlightened policy makers are trying to extend the age of oil, reduce greenhouse gases, and so on. But with the downside of Hubbert’s curve so close, and the financial system liable to crash again soon given the debt and lack of reforms, I don’t know how long anyone can stretch things out.

ODAC Newsletter – Feb 24

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Iran’s announcement on Sunday that it was cutting off oil sales to Britain and France ahead of the EU embargo sent Brent crude oil prices soaring to a 9 month high of $124/barrel and an all-time UK high of over £78. The price of oil is now firmly back in the news alongside a rash of articles rejecting peak oil, declaring imminent US energy independence, and discussing the changing balance of geopolitical power away from OPEC…

Oil executive son’s powerful testimony at Enbridge Northern Gateway pipeline joint review panel (includes transcript)

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Lee Brain, son of an oil man, receives a standing ovation and brings a crowd to tears after delivering powerful & inspirational testimony in front of the Northern Gateway Pipeline Joint Review Panel in Prince Rupert on February 18, 2012.