Insight and inspiration in turbulent times.
“By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD.” Such is the summary not of ODAC, ITPOES or ASPO, but of the United States Joint Forces Command…
A midweek roundup of peak oil news, including:
-Prices and production
-International Energy Agency
Concerns are mounting about peak oil, and there continues to be much debate over when the peak will be reached, whether a plateau can be sustained or whether the onset of decline would occur quickly, whether we will hit peak demand before we hit peak supply, etc.
When we think about the taxes and the federal deficit, we don’t usually think of Social Security and Medicare, because in government lingo, the payments we make for these programs aren’t taxes, they are contributions, and the funding deficit for these programs is not taken into account in determining the federal deficit.
As you know, Greer and I at times have our differences in perspective, but I think this week’s column is particularly acute, and offers up two point that I think are really essential to grasp when thinking of the future.
There will be at least three major consequences of recurring drought conditions in southwestern China. First will be that millions of people and head of livestock will have to find a source of water or move. Next comes the food supply. The third problem of a lasting drought is the collapse of hydro-generated power in China. Should the hydro-power shortages continue for long we can expect that higher oil imports and world prices will not be far behind.
– Demand for oil will hit record levels and threaten recovery, says energy agency
– Saudi oil use to grow steeply
– OPEC Holds Oil-Demand Forecast Steady
“The next twenty years will be totally unlike the last twenty… We’ll face the greatest economic and physical challenges ever seen by our country, if not humanity.” So opens Chris Martenson’s much-viewed online Crash Course illuminating the relationship between economy, energy and the environment. Starting with the power of exponential growth, he tidily sums up our economic problems: Too Much Debt. Chris discusses the implications if we continue the status quo, and ways to prepare. He believes that “if we manage the transition elegantly we can actually improve things.”
The descendants of those men who pulled coal-loaded barges upstream in 19th century now drive shiny cars powered by oil and work in front of computer screens. But the problem of oil is the same as it was for coal: it is not infinite and there is not enough of it for everyone.
A weekly roundup of peak oil news, including:
-Prices and production
-China’s drought
-Venezuela’s power crisis
-Oil prices and economic recovery
-Quote of the week
-Briefs
Forecasts of Pittsburgh’s future cite education and medicine, complemented by entrepreneurial “green energy” and high-tech ventures, as engines of 21st century growth. However, the country is entering its third year of economic contraction and fiscal crisis.
U. S. Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood may soon be nominated for heresy-of-the-year award for an impromptu speech at the 2010 National Bike Summit last month. In that speech he said federal transportation policy will no longer favor automobiles over bicyclists and walkers. As anyone who regularly rides a bicycle knows, this change is big precisely because automobiles and bicycles share much of the same infrastructure. But this very fact may bode ill for the bicycle in a post-oil future.
