Education

The dangers of certitude

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If forecasts are often futile and shouted warnings often go unheeded, what’s a peak oil concernist to do? Maybe the Yampa River offers us a lesson. Today, river runners always scout Warm Springs Rapid before running it. When they hear the roar of cascade, they row to shore, tie-up, then walk along the bank, examining their options, making plans, and discussing contingencies.

Immunize yourself against future hype

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A breakthrough in oil & gas industry technology is not inevitable. Indeed, it is not very likely. Painstaking linear growth in technological advances permit more oil to be recovered each year, but Seidensticker’s myths about technology change apply to the oil & gas industry just as they apply to most human endeavors.