Peak Oil Review: 8 Oct 2018

The question of whether we will see $100 oil before Christmas continues to dominate analytical comment in the financial press. The Iranian sanctions are the main factor that could drive prices substantially higher in the next year or so; however, there are many other forces at work that could lead to lower oil prices.

The problem with models…is getting stuck on just one

We humans are constantly modeling the world around us to find patterns that will help us. But sometimes we forget that our models are just that, tentative outlines of how the world seems to work. Getting stuck on just one model with no flexibility is often the result of vested interests pushing that model. We need to be smarter than that to solve the problems we now face as individuals and as a global society.

Climate change, water and the infrastructure problem

The naive notion that we can, for example, “just use more air conditioning” as the globe warms betrays a perplexing misunderstanding of what we face. Even if one ignores the insanity of burning more climate-warming fossil fuels to make electricity for more air-conditioning, there is the embedded assumption that our current infrastructure with only minor modifications will withstand the pressures placed upon it in a future transformed by climate change and other depredations.

Seawalls for oil refineries and other ironies of climate change adaptation

Several climate change deniers in the Texas political establishment aren’t deniers after all. They just don’t want the industry which got them elected (and could get them defeated just as easily) to pay anything to protect itself from the very dangers to which the use of the industry’s products exposes the entire globe.