CLIMATE
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Extreme droughts will spread, warn forecasters
Ian Sample, The Guardian
· Mass migrations of climate refugees predicted
· Met Office experts blame greenhouse gas emissions
Nearly a third of the world’s land surface may be at risk of extreme drought by the end of the century, wreaking havoc on farmland and water resources and leading to mass migrations of “environmental refugees”, climate experts warned yesterday.
Predictions based on historical trends in rainfall and surface temperatures dating back to the 1950s reveal that regions blighted by moderate droughts are set to double by the end of the century, with tentative data suggesting areas struck by extreme droughts may soar from 1% today to 30% in 2100.
(4 Oct 2006)
Related from the Independent: The century of drought.
Tasmania dry farms
ABC (Australia)
TRANSCRIPT: The big dry is a story that is being told across the country with many places already facing water restrictions. Tasmania’s summer is not looking much better.
Parts of the state had the driest winter on record and spring rains have so far not eventuated. While there have been showers across the state over the past couple of days, they have barely registered on the gauge and any benefit would have been quickly dried up by the galeforce winds.
Hydro Tasmania’s lakes have recorded the lowest flows in 15 years and the organisation maintains that without Bass link the state would be in a precarious position heading into summer. ..
(22 Sept 2006)
Shame about the formating, but a nice set of farmer interviews from Australias wettest state. See also NSW defends water patrol spending, or Severe water restrictions plan for the measures being considered for Adelaide and the CEO of Engineers Australia calling for a re-pricing of water so excessive use became prohibitive.-LJ
Can planting trees really give you a clear carbon conscience?
David Adam, The Guardian
Land Rover, British Gas and Coldplay are all doing it, but experts warn that the benefits of carbon offsetting may be overstated
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Whether driven by a desire to save the planet or a sense that “going green” is a powerful marketing tool, carbon offsets are everywhere. Need to book a British Airways flight to New York? Want to buy a new Range Rover or petrol from a BP garage? Simply click on the web link, do the sums and pay £20 or so to neutralise your contribution to global warming.
(7 Oct 2006)
Green thinking: Planet Earth… but not as we know it
Mark Lynas, New Statesman
You may find it hard to believe, but most environmentalists are optimists. Their doom-monger image is actually the opposite of the truth: their most consistent message is not that we are doomed, but that we have the time and the technology to avoid the worst calamities, if we act now.
This insistence on human agency irritates true doom-mongers, such as John Gray, who, reviewing George Monbiot’s new book Heat (NS, 18 September), complained: “The assumption that we can stop [global warming] becomes less scientifically tenable by the day, and is in fact not much more than a green version of anthropocentrism.” In this, Gray was echoing James Lovelock, who told the New York Times of 12 September that solar panels and wind turbines are “largely gestures”, but “no answer at all to the problem” of global warming, which is already essentially out of control.
To environmentalists, this is little short of heresy. But what if Lovelock is right? What if the global warming “tipping point” has already been passed, and escalating “positive feedbacks” indicate that accelerating climate damage is now inevitable?
(9 Oct 2006)
Hansen: Global temperature change
James Hansen et al., PNAS
ABSTRACT
Global surface temperature has increased {approx}0.2°C per decade in the past 30 years, similar to the warming rate predicted in the 1980s in initial global climate model simulations with transient greenhouse gas changes. Warming is larger in the Western Equatorial Pacific than in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific over the past century, and we suggest that the increased West–East temperature gradient may have increased the likelihood of strong El Niños, such as those of 1983 and 1998. Comparison of measured sea surface temperatures in the Western Pacific with paleoclimate data suggests that this critical ocean region, and probably the planet as a whole, is approximately as warm now as at the Holocene maximum and within {approx}1°C of the maximum temperature of the past million years. We conclude that global warming of more than {approx}1°C, relative to 2000, will constitute “dangerous” climate change as judged from likely effects on sea level and extermination of species.
(25 Sept 2006)
A scientific journal article.
Audio: Rasmus Benestad talks climate change on “The Reality Report”
Jason Bradford, Global Public Media
Rasmus E. Benestad has a doctorate of physics from Oxford University and works for the Norwegian Meteoroligical Institute. He is a contributor at realclimate.org, a place where professional climatologists review and discuss their field. In this week’s “Reality Report”, Benestad covers earth climate history, why it is changing now, and how climate modeling works. Jason Bradford hosts The Reality Report, broadcast on KZYX&Z in Mendocino County, CA.
Rasmus E. Benestad has a doctorate of physics from Oxford University and works for the Norwegian Meteoroligical Institute. He is a contributor at realclimate.org, a place where professional climatologists review and discuss their field. In this week’s “Reality Report”, Benestad covers earth climate history, why it is changing now, and how climate modeling works. Jason Bradford hosts The Reality Report, broadcast on KZYX&Z in Mendocino County, CA.
(9 Oct 2006)
