The current 21pg issue of the Proceedings of the Canadian Association of the Club of Rome is devoted to “The Age of
Oil”. This issue, Series 3, Number 6, September 2005, is edited by Andy Clarke.
Contents:
-The Global Crisis by J. Rennie Whitehead
-Important Dates in the Age of Oil
-The Impending Twin Crises — One Set of Solutions? by John H. Walsh
-What to do in a failing civilization by David M. Delaney
-Can Industrial Civilization Survive the Age of Oil? by Andy Clarke
-Recent Peak Oil Quotes
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Excerpts:
Editorial by Andy Clark
…As indicated on page 28 of this issue, during very recent months a growing number of knowledgeable observers have indicated that the oil crunch may arrive much sooner than expected.
At present, the public mood to an impending energy crisis appears to be a mix of denial, obliviousness, ignorance, and faith that if the worst does happen, science and technology will somehow come to our rescue.
All this can be expected to change as oil prices continue their inevitable climb, and shortages begin to occur with increasing regularity.
The Global Crisis by J. Rennie Whitehead
In the mid-1960s Aurelio Peccei began to call attention to an interdependent set of global problems which he called the “Problematique”. They were mainly related to the excessive growth of population, consumption of food materials and energy and contamination of the ecosphere. …
There can be no question that the greatest and most urgent priority at the present time is the replacement of fossil fuels as rapidly as possible. Much needs to be done to persuade politicians and the public that if they wait until their fear of freezing in the dark exceeds their fear of properly regulated nuclear-electric hydrogen power, they will undoubtedly freeze in the dark. …
Ideal solutions to these problems are no longer available. Therefore the resulting decisions will always be opposed by groups who simplistically seek ideal solutions. All future choices will involve substantial risk. Comparative risk assessment is essential. …
The Impending Twin Crises — One Set of Solutions? by John H. Walsh
The world faces two distinctly different but related crises over the next decades. The first arises from dangerous changes in the climate resulting from the continuing build-up of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
The principal greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, comes from the excessive consumption of the fossil fuels. The second crisis results from the approaching peak in the world’s production of oil derived from conventional sources. This
critical milestone will be reached sometime between essentially the present (2005) and 2038; the parabolic technique developed by this author places the peak in the period 2015–2020. …
Canada is virtually alone among developed countries in the energy field in that it has nearly every possibility on both the supply and the demand side. It is hard to think of an exception but it may lack a high degree of sunlight for some solar collection schemes. …
What to do in a failing civilization by David M. Delaney
Can global civilization adapt successfully to degradation of the biosphere and depletion of fossil fuels? I argue that it cannot.
Important elements of all constituent societies would have to be reformed. Reform would have to be radical and would be uncertain of success. It could be undertaken only in the presence of incontrovertible necessity—a necessity that will reveal itself incontrovertibly only when catastrophic collapse has become unavoidable. I conclude that those who seek to preserve civilization should plan for its survival in restricted regions. …
A catastrophic collapse of the economy and population of the world is more than likely. We cannot escape overshoot’s trap. What should we do?
First, who are “we”? Until now I have used “we” to refer to all humanity. If we insist that “we’re all in the same boat”, we shall all drown, because the one boat will sink. Those who hope to preserve civilization must accept that it is likely to sink into chaos in much of the world. The survival of some elements of civilization will require lifeboats that can be constructed only from communities, regions, perhaps nations, that are not now in overshoot.
To preserve civilization at least some of these must choose to stay out of overshoot, establish independence in the production of food, energy, materials, and crucial manufactured goods, and defend their borders against the migrations that will tend to spread overshoot everywhere.
This strategy may fail. The necessary awareness and resolve may not develop soon enough in any of those fortunate regions not already in overshoot. Awareness and resolve may be prevented by the very institutional and psychological mechanisms that have been described earlier in this essay. Regions with resolve may be prevented from implementing it by superior governments or by economically or militarily stronger trade partners. But those who argue for survival of a community may have a better chance of persuading their audience than had those who argued for better management of global population and resources. They will have the advantage of arguing at a time when less fortunate regions of the world have begun to provide both unmistakable examples and unmistakable threats. …
David Delaney’s full article is also available in HTML
format at his website
