The long road down: decline and the deindustrial future

The crucial needs that must be met in an age of decline are damage control, cultural survival, and the building of a new society amid the ruins of the old. Political and business interests aren’t going to meet these needs, or do anything else helpful; oil is to the modern industrial nations what corn was to the ancient Maya, and the ahauob of Washington and Wall Street have turned to war just as their Maya equivalents did.

Fundamentals in the Oil Pricing Game

Any production numbers for OPEC are subject to the key question: net or gross? This pattern, of domestic oil demand increasing much faster than production, is common to far more than 9 out of 10 oil producers, both OPEC and nonOPEC. Net exports, therefore, will always tend to grow slower than national production.

Mexico’s Largest Oil Field in Premature Decline

Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), Mexico’s state oil monopoly, said it expects production at its Cantarell oil field to begin declining this year, earlier than previously forecast.
Cantarell is the largest oil field in Mexico, and the eighth largest in the world. The field, which has been in production since 1979, had produced 2.11 million barrels per day in 2004. Pemex expects that to decline by 5% to 2.0 mbpd in 2005.