Insight and inspiration in turbulent times.
Mark Braly reports from the German Government’s Renewables 2004 conference in Bonn, that “something else, not new but more urgently felt, was in the air at the conference. The expert consensus now holds that the peak of world oil production is near – if it has not already happened.”
Surprise! We’re in the midst of an oil shock and its impact could be as nasty as the first three, writes David Potts.
No oil company wants to be the first to face stock market meltdown by announcing their production is in decline, no government wants to be voted out for such bad news.
One expert has picked an Armageddon date for the peak of oil production: Thanksgiving 2005. The slow decline in world supplies will start then.
Although the former Soviet Union has pumped crude for years, only recently has Russia emerged as the world’s second-biggest oil exporter and — if the Bush administration has its way — a potentially important new supplier of both oil and gas to the United States. Russia’s crude oil production rivals that of Saudi Arabia, and analysts say its reserves could provide the output answer for the United States, China, South Korea and Japan, which have grown increasingly wary of their dependence on producers in the Middle East.
The doomsayers say they will stabilise at $70; the optimists argue they will tumble to $15. Outlook examines arguments on both sides of the oil divide.
As the oil price rose to a new high of more than $44 a barrel this week, amid concerns about supply, OPEC’s president said the cartel was unable to pump more oil and thus bring down the price. He later contradicted these comments, but observers remain sceptical about OPEC’s ability to turn on more taps.
“Powerdown” is a strategy that will require tremendous effort and economic sacrifice in order to reduce per-capita resource usage in wealthy countries, develop alternative energy sources, distribute resources more equitably, and reduce the human population humanely but systematically over time.
Jim Puplava: Welcome everyone. Joining me on the program today is Richard Heinberg. He has been writing about energy resource issues and the dynamics of cultural change for many years. He’s a member of the core faculty at New College of California and he’s an award-winning author of three previous books. His last book is called The Party is Over; his newsletter was nominated for the best alternative newsletter award; his new book is called Power Down: Options and Actions for a Post -Carbon World.
Oil profits in Africa have been used almost exclusively for the enrichment of the countries’ leaders, and as a consequence most of the population remains poor and unprotected.
Record-high oil prices signal new danger to the economy, as rising costs ripple into everything from floral deliveries to the production of plastic toys and orange juice.
As crude oil prices soar to their highest levels ever, costs of related products and services such as petrochemical products and international airfare are being yanked up along with them, threatening economic growth.
