Fossil Fuels

Crude Oil Price Retreat: Sunrise or a Lull Before the Storm?

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Ted Trainer (1997) predicted large and permanent increases in oil prices after the year 2000 due to increasing scarcity. In fact in March 2008, oil broke through the psychological ceiling of $100 a barrel, and later in early June rose to around $140 on the way to $150…
…On the heels of such predictions, in the months of July and August 2008, oil has fallen from $147 a barrel (11 July) to $115 (8 August), a large drop over four weeks of 22%…
The paper will consider the present crude oil price retreat and what it likely portends for the future price of oil.

Peak oil – Aug 10

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David Strahan: Have we reached the end of the road for oil?
Rising need of crude in energy rich nations
Heinberg on Al Jazeera TV
CIBC’s Ben Tal sees $200 oil
Energy: It’s still cheap (Matt Simmons. interview)

Does queueing theory explain oil’s wild price swings?

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Price movements in the short run contain very little information of importance for long-term planning. To pay too close attention to every decline in the oil price would be the equivalent of halting construction on one’s home every time the sun comes out believing that a new era of permanent sunshine and balmy weather obviates the need for shelter.