The turbulent globe: Resources and climate change in the background

It should come as no surprise that the two major conflicts raging in the world today involve large energy producers and exporters, namely, Iran and Russia. Energy resources, especially fossil fuels, attract conflicts because they are so unevenly distributed in the world and because despite this, everyone needs those resources. The simple fact is that nothing gets done without energy and fossil fuels are still the dominate fuels in the world.

But it’s not just energy, of course, which invites conflict. Water resources are becoming increasingly a focal point of contention. The Pacific Institute, which provides comprehensive data on the world’s water resources, also keeps a database of conflict involving water and lists 785 conflicts worldwide since 2020.

While I do not deny that there are other reasons for the conflicts we are seeing—ethnic, religious, geostrategic, domestic politics, even personal—the fight over stuff is always under the surface, especially in a world which is fast depleting its finite stores of nonrenewable energy and minerals. How fast? Two examples will give you a taste.  Through 2021 half of all the oil consumed in the modern oil age since 1859 was consumed from 1998 through that year.  Through 2018 half of all the copper ever mined was mined from the year 2000 through that year. The expectation that we can keep doubling production for many mineral resources from here in ever shorter time frames does not seem credible.

The Syrian civil war is believed in part to have stemmed from the inability of the government to deal with a severe drought which was gripping the country at that time. The drought when combined with bad water and agricultural policy decisions led 1.5 million people to migrate from the countryside to the city, a tremendously destabilizing development.

The emerging standoff between China, the United States and other countries in the South China Sea would probably not be happening or be far more muted were it not for the prospect of vast oil and gas resources. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that the prospective areas contain up to 9.2 billion barrels of petroleum resources and up to 216 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. It’s no wonder that energy-hungry China is so eager to claim as much of this resource as it can. In its report, the EIA provides a convenient timeline of 24 separate incidents involving conflicting claims from various countries and actual confrontations at sea between 2013 and 2023.

Meanwhile, the conflict between Pakistan and India in part stems from disputes over water from the Indus River, which flows through both countries and through Kashmir.  India has abrogated a 1960 treaty governing flows from the river and is now moving ahead with dams that could threaten agriculture and hydropower in Pakistan.

In the coming months when you read about these conflicts and others, ask yourself what the resource or climate component of the conflict might be. It’s usually not visible in the news coverage, but it’s bound to be there and it can be just as important as any of the other ostensible causes of the conflict.