Recorded April 10, 2023
Description
In this Frankly, Nate explains how he views the future from a probability perspective – a tool frequently used in industries such as finance, retirement planning, and by e.g. gamblers. While there will be only one eventual outcome, the possible paths to that future fall in a distribution, with some results much more likely than others. We can shift these results with our actions in the present. However, no one person can know this distribution perfectly, only the distribution shaped by their own bias, knowledge, and perspective. How might we use a probabilistic approach to better understand what’s possible – and even to better relate to others? By thinking of the future as a spectrum, can we avoid falling into traps of certainty and complacency that inevitably lead to inaction? While there are some outcomes that are impossible, there are still many within our power to steer towards during a Simplification.
Show Notes
03:15 – What is a normal curve?
04:20 – Non-normal distributions
08:28 – Graph from Probabilistic projections of increased heat stress driven by climate change
11:22 – IPCC Projections
11:58 – Peak in Crude Oil Production
12:41 – Germany and Greece turn to cutting down forest stocks during difficult economic times with low energy availability
13:15 – Graph from Global food insecurity and famine from reduced crop, marine fishery, and livestock production due to climate disruption from nuclear war soot injection
13:53 – Catastrophic impacts of nuclear exchange on the planet
16:56 – Decrease of in-person interaction as a result of social media
17:25 – Confirmation bias and increase of it due to social media
17:38 – Social media increases extreme views and polarization
Comments
Welcome to the new Resillience commenting system!
We have moved from the former Disqus commenting system to a new system as of September 10, 2026.
We made this change because of privacy concerns regarding Disqus. It's also part of a set of changes to bring more services to the Resilience community under a single login: commenting, (coming September 2026), and online courses (coming 2027). Unfortunately, your old Disqus comments may not reliably link to your account in this new system. Please contact us if you have any questions or concerns.
Any uprising we can pull off today should be focused on power, the power to decide, the power to govern the source of which is money, the governing factor. We have an unelected government with power and an elected government with no power. Our privatized money system is dedicated to maximizing profits at any cost and we can no longer afford to allow that. Congress needs to take the money power back and dedicate it to the general welfare. Anything short of that is just treating the symptoms of the disease and as any physician can tell you, treating only the symptoms just masks the disease. Allowing this to continue brings our end more and more into focus. It is apocalypse now, “the lifting of the veil” on elite crimes, signaling the end of their world as we know it.
Very good presentation of the uncertainty regarding risk distribution curves. But Hagens left out an important point: it is the left side of the Worse – Better distribution that people need to concentrate on. If you prepare for the worst (the Gray Swans), having events turn out much better does no harm except for opportunity cost. If events turn out too much worse, you die.
This same effect applies at all scales, from the indivudual to the global. But it seems clear to me that we have been very poor at collectively preparing for a number of major risks and have done little to shift the risk distribution for the better. This means that the burden of assessing and preparing for extreme risk falls on individuals and families. We can’t rely so much on government policy to save us.