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Reality, Probability, and Perception

April 17, 2023

Recorded April 10, 2023


In this Frankly, Nate explains how he views the future from a probability perspective – a tool frequently used in industries such as finance, retirement planning, and by e.g. gamblers. While there will be only one eventual outcome, the possible paths to that future fall in a distribution, with some results much more likely than others. We can shift these results with our actions in the present. However, no one person can know this distribution perfectly, only the distribution shaped by their own bias, knowledge, and perspective. How might we use a probabilistic approach to better understand what’s possible – and even to better relate to others? By thinking of the future as a spectrum, can we avoid falling into traps of certainty and complacency that inevitably lead to inaction? While there are some outcomes that are impossible, there are still many within our power to steer towards during a Simplification.

Show Notes

03:15 – What is a normal curve?

04:20 – Non-normal distributions

08:28 – Graph from Probabilistic projections of increased heat stress driven by climate change

11:22 – IPCC Projections

11:58 – Peak in Crude Oil Production

12:41 – Germany and Greece turn to cutting down forest stocks during difficult economic times with low energy availability

13:15 – Graph from Global food insecurity and famine from reduced crop, marine fishery, and livestock production due to climate disruption from nuclear war soot injection

13:53 – Catastrophic impacts of nuclear exchange on the planet

16:56 – Decrease of in-person interaction as a result of social media

17:25 – Confirmation bias and increase of it due to social media

17:38 – Social media increases extreme views and polarization

Youtube Link here

Nate Hagens

Nate Hagens

Nate Hagens is the Director of The Institute for the Study of Energy & Our Future (ISEOF) an organization focused on educating and preparing society for the coming cultural transition. Allied with leading ecologists, energy experts, politicians and systems thinkers ISEOF assembles road-maps and off-ramps for how human societies can adapt to lower throughput lifestyles. Nate holds a Masters Degree in Finance with Honors from the University of Chicago and a Ph.D. in Natural Resources from the University of Vermont. He teaches an Honors course, Reality 101, at the University of Minnesota.

Tags: climate change projections, Future Scenarios