The Energy Bulletin Weekly 13 September 2022

September 13, 2022

Tom Whipple and Steve Andrews, Editors

Quotes of the Week

Limited global LNG supplies could be “really, really tight this winter.”
   — Corey Grindal, Cheniere Energy’s executive vice president 

“Russia may face a longer and deeper recession as the impact of US and European sanctions spreads, handicapping sectors that the country has relied on for years to power its economy, according to an internal report prepared for the government.

“…Two of the three scenarios in the report show the contraction accelerating next year, with the economy returning to the prewar level only at the end of the decade or later. The “inertial” one sees the economy bottoming out next year 8.3% below the 2021 level, while the “stress” scenario puts the low in 2024 at 11.9% under last year’s level.
   — Bloomberg News

Stats of the Week

Energy bills for European households will surge by 2 trillion euros ($2 trillion) at their peak early next year, underscoring the need for government intervention, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. utilities analysts.
   — Allegra Catelli, Bloomberg News

The shortage of distillate fuel oils is worldwide with stocks at their lowest level for more than a decade in Europe and Asia. [US] stocks are…at the lowest level for the time of year since 1996… Europe’s distillate inventories are… at the lowest seasonal level since 2002. Only a global slowdown in manufacturing and freight transportation will rebuild stocks to more comfortable levels and abate the upward pressure on refinery margins and oil prices.
   — John Kemp, Reuters

Graphics of the Week

Headlines for the week of Sept 5 – Sept 12

The Global Energy Situation
Shock waves hit the global economy, posing grave risk to Europe
A worrying indicator of looming oil demand destruction


Russia privately warns of deep and prolonged economic damage
Siemens Energy: don’t understand Gazprom view on Nord Stream 1
EU plans to cap Russian gas price as Putin warns West of winter freeze


Russia evacuates occupied area as Ukraine presses offensive in East
Germany and Europe set for energy rationing after Russian gas cuts
Macron: France, Germany to provide each other with gas, electricity, to weather crisis
The oil giant planning to make Russian gas irrelevant by 2025
Cost of Truss energy relief plan may top $200 billion, analyst says
UK shale gas developers eager to resume work after fracking ban lifted
UK puts a cap on household energy bills

North America

U.S. gasoline prices to keep falling as refiners keep making other products
Short-Term Energy Outlook
LNG could be “really, really tight” this winter: Cheniere
Column: U.S. diesel stocks critically low after failing to recover over summer: Kemp

Middle East/NA

Will Iran nuclear deal happen?
Russia to help Iran in developing crucial gas reserves
Is Iraq an underappreciated risk in oil markets?
Iraq’s oil exports decline as northern sales slump


Column: China’s August coal and copper imports not as strong as they look: Russell
China’s ‘Zero Covid’ bind: no easy way out despite the cost –
China’s annual oil demand could drop for the first time In 20 years


India gives coal-fired plants extra two years to install emissions equipment

The Global Economy


Putin calls for review of Ukraine grain deal, accuses West of deception
India restricts rice exports as commodity prices surge


U.S. natural gas futures shed over 5% on soaring output
California power grid faces biggest blackout risk of year as heatwave intensifies


EU leaders say Putin’s gas power is weakening


Goldman sees $2 trillion surge in Europe energy bills by 2023
60% of UK manufacturers could close as energy prices soar
New UK leader Liz Truss finalizes huge power subsidy plan


Climate change could worsen supply chain turmoil
China oil demand may shrink first time since 2002 as COVID curbs bite


Nigeria’s massive oil theft scandal and lack of enlightened self-interest
Nigeria: how broke Nigeria lost u.s.$10 billion to crude oil theft in seven months

Middle East/NA

Eni buys BP’s business in Algeria to secure more African gas
Iraq’s Instability Deepens Amid Political Paralysis and Clashes

Global Warming

Failure to slow warming will set off climate ‘tipping points,’ scientists say
Study: Four major climate tipping points close to triggering

North America

N.Y. to Maine hit by rare drought killing crops, sparking fires


Alpine glaciers fall victim to Europe’s warming climate

Tom Whipple

Tom Whipple is one of the most highly respected analysts of peak oil issues in the United States. A retired 30-year CIA analyst who has been following the peak oil story since 1999, Tom is the editor of the long-running Energy Bulletin (formerly "Peak Oil News" and "Peak Oil Review"). Tom has degrees from Rice University and the London School of Economics.  

Tags: geopolitics, oil prices