About 15 years ago I helped to host a group of Russian entrepreneurs during one stop on their tour of the United States, a tour sponsored by the Chamber of Commerce. As we hosts accompanied our visitors, we naturally fell into conversation with them. One of them noted a contrast with Russian life that stuck with me because it was offered in terms that were so unexpectedly strange. He said that compared to Russian grocery stores, “your grocery stores are like museums.”
Just as fish don’t notice they are swimming in water, we Americans are prone to think of our spacious (by world standards) grocery stores with their carefully arranged and brimming shelves; colorful produce sections; fulsome meat counters; and well-stocked frozen dessert cases—all festooned with artfully crafted point-of-purchase displays—as merely utilitarian platforms for obtaining our daily provisions.
Fast forward to today and we find that some grocery stores are unexpectedly moving even closer to the museum model, but not in the good way my Russian acquaintance had in mind. We are, of course, not surprised to see pretty pictures in museums rather than the objects those images depict. Now, in some of grocery stores in Great Britain, pretty pictures are being used to cover over gaps in the produce and dry goods sections.
The cause for those gaps is put down in part to the logistics challenges facing Britain as it adjusts to altered trade flows in the wake of its withdrawal from the European Union.
But I am now seeing noticeable gaps opening up in the shelves of my local grocery stores in Washington, D.C. And, there are others noticing the same phenomenon. The situation is not yet critical. Basic foodstuffs still appear to be easily and widely available.
The cause for these spreading shortages is a supply chain weakened by decades of streamlining in an effort to cut costs and reward investors with the savings. We have a supply chain optimized for finance, not for actual living. Any prudent person knows that life including business life is likely to include unexpected disruptions from time to time. These disruptions are easier to get through if we have planned for them. If we lose a job, the bad effects are mitigated somewhat if we have sufficient savings. We can manage until we find another job.
But the worldwide logistics system we have designed is more like a person who lives paycheck to paycheck. The minute there’s a gap in deliveries, chaos and difficulties ensue. Inventories are eschewed in favor of “just-in-time” delivery. When something doesn’t show up at the factory door, production stops for want of a critical part. Or, in the case of grocery stores, shelves go empty—and store owners try to mask this embarrassing fact by spreading out existing inventory or even, as mentioned above, posting pictures of the missing items on empty shelves.
We are told that this is a temporary problem and that supply chains will ultimately adjust. I’m not convinced that will happen anytime soon. The reason has to do with the complexity of the system we have built. Because it is so complex, no one really understands how it all works, that is, no one understands all the linkages and what disruptions in any of those linkages will lead to.
I think our logistics system has become like the so-called “three-body problem” in physics. It should be noted that the problem of describing the motion of three interacting bodies precisely has not been solved and, furthermore, it’s a problem in which there is no element of human decision-making. The Encyclopedia Britannica states: “No general solution of this problem (or the more general problem involving more than three bodies) is possible, as the motion of the bodies quickly becomes chaotic.”
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Our logisitics system is like a three-body problem with millions and even billions of bodies including the bodies of sentient humans making all kinds of decisions, many of which are unpredictable. In short, that system is so complex that no one really understands it fully. And that means no one has any clear idea of how to fix it.
What’s broken in our logistics system may not be broken in the manner or for the reasons imagined. Trying to figure out “causes” in complex interacting, looped systems is often difficult and more often impossible. The loops made by cargo containers across oceans and back seem simple enough. But they are actually so complex that shippers are now faced with chaos and extreme shortages in the wake of several interlocking problems. There appears to be no quick solution.
It’s certainly possible that the world will go back to what passed for normal before the pandemic. But I have my doubts. I think it is more likely that some new perturbation in the worldwide logistics system will come along and create additional novel problems, ones that may be as inscrutable as the three-body problem.
Photo: Covid-19 buying panic, shelves empty of bread, Fred Meyers, Federal Way, Washington (2020). By Wonderlane. Via Wikimedia Commons. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Excellent_time_to_say_THANK_YOU_to_our_grocery_store_managers_%26_workers,_Covid-19_buying_panic,_shelves_empty_of_bread,_Fred_Meyers,_Federal_Way,_Washington,_USA_(49662769878).jpg
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This essay helps shed some light on the topic at hand.
https://paulkingsnorth.substack.com/p/the-dream-of-the-rood
I realize being a degrowth doomer my views are alternative. I feel it is important you have this alternative view. It is important to have a balanced view. When you see the doctor, you should ask him about the worst case. He may tell you it will be a tradeoff. Do you want to take the radiation treatment and suffer lifelong side effects or risk having the cancer in you? He may tell you that it is possible you will die of something else. This is how I look at decline. I want to know the worst case because I am a pessimist. Yet, I start from the worst case and begin optimism.
How does that relate to groceries stores! When I walk through a modern grocery store, I feel many feelings. My degrowth doom filter goes on full surreal. My green judgement is disgusted. These places epitomize what is wrong with our modern culture. We have gone fully into the absurd for something so vital and critical to life. The whole process of getting these products from across the globe to these shelves is mentally maddening for me. There is the management of these stores in energy intensive ways to preserve products. All those freezers preserving junk. Much of what is in a store is junk anyway. The whole process of driving there and buying and then going home. Sometimes there is a drive for one thing or just to do something. The whole process is utterly broken to me yet, the satisfaction of buying diverse quality products is also on my mind. I continue to go there but I tell myself this can’t last as I walk out with delicious things that make life so special.
One of the biggest surreal feelings is the scaling of reality of my relationship to this. Sometimes I feel like a freeloader. I think of what I produce then think about what I am getting at the store and think to myself this is not a valid exchange. I feel like these various products are much more valuable than what I am offering to get them. It is almost like I am getting these things for free. I do see the price tag and things have been going up but this is different. This is a universal value comparison of the deepest of meaning one must do as an animal. I should be taking what I produce and trading it for something from another farmer with all this remaining local. That is a truer value. This grocery store represents overshoot. Multiple this by hundreds of thousands and you get the picture of a massive discrepancy with reality of modern life.
I believe the important point here is to see this for what it is and in humbleness, accept this trap. This is a trap because the intrinsic value of this is completely wrong. The resilience and sustainability are trash. This is an existential trap of affluence of one of the top most important aspect to survival. This is a pure picture of the failure of modern life. You are like a king but a king that does not have a mandate from heaven and a king who has tenuous grasp on his rule. This is a trap we are in both with the whole process but also the psychology. I see all this absurdity but still go and I still buy high quality items. I know this can’t last or might be gone soon but I still go.
Getting back to our good doctor and his diagnosis. Something else might kill us first especially if you are pushing 60 like me. I may go to my grave with this craziness still fully functional. Yet, let’s say it does end then what? Will it end with a process or just end abruptly? Just think about no grocery store and instead soup line and large open air food pantries where what government that is still around handing out bread, butter, and cheese. This is a real possibility because the trucks, trains, massive ocean cargo handlers, and planes could be drastically reduced. You will get you emergency ration from what few transport options are available when they are available. Your electric power at home might not be reliable and little gas at the pump. If we get to where these stores are not working the grid will not be working well. The places we get cloths might be empty. This is reality too so occasionally embrace it.
The point I am making here is this situation should be view like going to the good doctor in a healthy situation but with the possibility you have cancer. There is a disbelief but also the surreal of facing death or disability. When you go to these stores think about this occasionally. I am not telling you to get prepped up. This is a good option but even this option will run out in a few months. Prepping is good to give you time to think without panic but longer term it will not save you. I am asking you to adapt your attitude occasionally to reality. At least know your options and know this is a trap. It is not realistic and does not reflect reality in nature. We are still animals and we forget this way too often. realgreenadaptation.blog
Ha! Yes, it is hard for me to go into the local Safeway.