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Many more articles are available through the Energy Bulletinhomepage
Recession likely to fuel another roller-coaster ride for oil in 2009
Tamsin Carlisle, The National (United Arab Emirates)
It was the year that broke the banks and the back of the global economy. For oil prices, it was the year of the superspike.
And for governments and companies making plans for the year ahead, it was a year that bequeathed them a massive dilemma: whether to count on oil prices staying near their current level of below US$40 barrel – roughly a four-and-a-half year low – or to brace for further wild price swings.
… crude’s upwards spiral piqued renewed public interest in the “Peak Oil” theory proposed in 1956 by the US geologist M King Hubbert.
The theory’s advocates, believing the price surge meant the world was running out of oil, gained political acceptance by embracing the corollary that an immediate large-scale shift to clean energy alternatives was essential to save the planet from descent into an energy-starved chaos. This added to Peak Oil’s popular appeal, boosting the shares of alternative energy companies and makers of electric cars.
”Our view is that oil production will peak in the near future. We need to develop power trains for alternative energy sources,” Katsuaki Watanabe, the president of the car maker Toyota, said in June.
Some Gulf oil producers also jumped on the clean energy bandwagon, the UAE among them. Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company, or Masdar, announced a series of costly developments with foreign partners, including a $2 billion (Dh7.34bn) scheme to build a hydrogen-fuelled power station and carbon-capture and storage project, a $2bn investment in the manufacture of thin-film solar cells, and an international joint venture to build solar power plants.
With oil prices now about 70 per cent off their peak, the economics of these projects are looking increasingly dicey and some may face delays. Still, the Masdar chief executive, Sultan al Jaber, remains convinced of the wisdom of developing clean energy in the Middle East.
(20 December 2008)
Interview: Myth of the Oil Crisis (audio)
Doug Henwood, Left Business Observer
Robin Mills, author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis, on why peak oil is a crock *
(13 September 2008)
Just re-broadcast on KPFA (liberal-left radio station in Berkeley, California).
According to his website:
Robin Mills, born in the UK, currently works in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, at the heart of the Middle Eastern oil business. Mr. Mills has more than a decade of experience in the international oil business, as a geologist and economist, with Shell and Dubai government companies.
Mr. Mills is an articulate spokesperson, but his arguments are unconvincing. According to him, for example, oil shale and carbon sequestration are just about ready for prime time; technical improvements in oil exploitation make Hubbert’s curve obsolete; unconventional oil will save the day even if conventional oil supplies run low. Somehow the arguments seem out of date; even the oil companies have moved on.
The Myth of the Oil Crisis – book website.
Gwynne Dyer: International Energy Agency says peak oil is coming sooner
Gwynne Dyer, Georgia Straight
Worried about “peak oil”? The International Energy Agency’s annual report, “The World Energy Outlook 2008,” admits for the first time that “although global oil production in total is not expected to peak before 2030, production of conventional oil…is projected to level off towards the end of the projection period.”
… Indeed, it is a safe bet that the demand for oil is going to fall faster than the supply over the next 10 or 15 years. Even if we are already at or near “peak oil”, the annual decline in oil production just after the peak is actually quite shallow–around two percent—in the classic Hubbert curve. And if demand falls faster than supply, the price will also collapse.
Ladies and gentlemen, place your bets….
(20 December 2008)
Peak Uranium: What’s Going to Fuel All Those Nuclear Plants?
Keith Johnson, Environmental Capital, Wall Street Journal
Now that “peak oil” is seemingly in retreat, is the next big worry peak uranium?
The expected nuclear-power renaissance, from the U.K. to India, means dozens more nuclear reactors will likely be built in coming years. Current-generation reactors all need uranium for fuel—but where’s all that uranium going to come from? The Wall Street Journal reports today that some nuclear operators are getting nervous:
(19 December 2008)
Strahan on the London oil summit
David Strahan, blog
My interview on Channel 4 News on 19 December, about the London oil summit, can be seen by following the links below.
Click on the link below to Channel 4’s site. Then click on ‘Missed the Show?’ on the right hand side, and then choose ‘Fri 19 Dec News at Noon Pt 1’. The segment starts about 1 minute into the programme.
Channel 4 News.
(19 December 2008)
Coverage of the oil summit begins about 1:20, the Strahan interview about 4:20. -BA
