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Infrastructure Spending, Peak Oil and the Green New Deal
Big Gav, The Oil Drum: ANZ
Tasmanian Greens Senator Christine Milne made a good speech in the Senate this week about infrastructure spending and how we can solve peak oil, global warming and energy security issues in one go by shifting to an expanded, smarter grid with large scale renewable generation – and at the same time address the problem of our economic dependence on fossil fuels, which becomes ever more risky to our economic well-being as time passes by.
From Hansard (PDF – starting at p38):
I rise today to support the Nation-building Funds Bill 2008 and cognate bills. It has been apparent for some time that Australia desperately needs to invest in infrastructure, and there has been a dearth of that in the last 10 years of the Howard government. There has also been in that time incredible pork-barrelling and failure of many of the public-private partnerships, which delivered us some white elephants around the country that the community is going to long live to regret. We have now a coincidence of a global financial crisis and the climate crisis. Indeed, we have peak oil as well.
(6 December 2008)
Strahan: Why is the oil price plunging?
David Strahan, blog
The oil price has fallen by 25% in a week, to around $40 per barrel, more than $100 lower than its all time peak in July. David Strahan
was interviewed on Radio 4’s flagship Today programme this morning about the reasons for the collapse, and the likely outlook.
Radio 4 Today Programme
(6 December 2008)
I found the interview at about 21:30 minutes into the Dec 6 Today show at http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_7768000/7768773.stm
EU energy consensus – trending in the right direction
Jerome a Paris, The Oil Drum: Europe
I was invited last Monday to a seminar organised by the French government as part of the presidency of the EU on the theme of energy security. A lot of heavy hitters speaking: former IEA boss Mandil chaired the whole process, current IEA boss Tanaka spoke, as did the CEOs of E.ON, Total or Dow Europe, various high level EU Commission members and EU ministers. Here are some notes of what I found interesting in the first part of the conference (I missed the second half, but part of it was a summary of the first part for ministers, and the other part was ministerial speeches).
No media was authorised at the meeting, so this is an exclusive summary, which the organisers in the French ministry of industry have kindly allowed me to post.
Tanaka spoke first, to provide a summary of the WEO: he called it “shocking but interesting” (his exact words) which I found notable (and a hint maybe of the internal conflicts that the IEA faced on the topic). He flagged the “serious investment issue” the world faces, as well as the risk of a serious supply crunch when demand comes back after the current crisis. He strongly supported the idea of a stimulus package focused on sustainable energy, calling a “Green New Deal” an excellent thing.
One insightful point he made is that with respect to security of supply, non-OECD countries matter more and more, and thus focusing only on ourselves (the rich countries) is not good enough. After mentioning the increased reliance on imports, and mentioning the importance of fighting climate change, he concluded by saying the the “era of cheap oil is over”, and that we have to get used to expensive energy.
… De Margerie, the Total CEO, had some hard-hitting words, saying that he was tired of the mindless alarmism he sees too much of, which is not focused on the real problems. So he blasted Nabucco once more (a pipeline without gas), told people to stop worrying about Ukraine, about terrorism in general – although he said that Somalia was a very real issue, or about the energy weapon – on the other hand, Hormuz was a real issue for him. He said that beyond the lack of investment, he was worried in the medium term about the increasing scarcity of resources, about low prices making exporting countries just as difficult to deal with (because of internal problems) as high prices, and about a need for importers to talk to exporting countries and to actually listen to what they have to say (“even the Russians and the Saudi have legitimate preoccupations sometimes. . .”). He noted that it might be smart to remember that some exporters are also large consumers and thus do not behave in the same way (and he suggested that helping them use less energy might be a smart thing to do).
… Mandil, summing up the first half of the day noted 5 points (which he was going to pass on to ministers in the afternoon session, which I missed):
1. Keynes is back, and a Green New Deal focused on the electricity grid seems like a good thing to everybody.
2. Energy efficiency is the first priority for all, followed by renewables, nukes, CCS, cogen and R&D.
3. The regulatory framework is not good enough yet for objectives to be met, and must be improved.
4. Nobody has asked for the European Commission to do less on the issue, quite the opposite: coordination is a key buzzword.
5. Let’s not cry wolf too much – the real issue is medium term investment.
(7 December 2008)
A Gift to Planet Earth and Humanity
Patrick Takahashi, Huffington Post
A miracle has occurred. Many were beginning to contemplate a survival strategy because of the dual hammer of Peak Oil and Global Warming. But a funny thing happened on our way to doomsday. It is appearing that we are getting a reprieve, and, ironically, the gift is this serious, but fixable, economic collapse.
… In grand summary, then, this world economic collapse could well be a gift to Planet Earth and Humanity, for Peak Oil will be delayed, carbon dioxide in our atmosphere will be somewhat alleviated and, thankfully, we will have this five to fifteen year period to work on sustainable options that can begin to competitively replace fossil fuels.
The following simple solutions can be recommended:
1. Take advantage of this “gift” of time and comprehensively prepare for a sustainable energy economy. The Obama energy transition team and the new Congress can either instill a yes we can change…or royally blow it.
2. As research and development are only a fraction of actual commercial investments, government can cost-effectively and should expeditiously partner with industry and academia to plan for, fund and implement a visionary renewable energy mandate, even more monumental than the Apollo Project.
3. Smartly insert a carbon tax linked to the price of oil, now.
(7 December 2008)
Robert Hirsch and Kyle Saunders (Prof Goose) talks (audio and video)
Peak Moment via Global Public Media
Broadening the Peak Oil Conversation
Senior energy analyst Robert Hirsch reflects on the immediate liquid fuels problem, and the rebuilding of our entire energy system which will take at least twenty years. He reflects on comments made during the ASPO-USA 2008 conference presentations, noting that he remains optimistic about American response to the daunting challenges ahead.
Political science professor Kyle Saunders is the “Professor Goose” behind the Oil Drum website. He champions the need to learn from one another about complex, interdependent topics like the economy and energy, noting that every piece of information we can get can reduce uncertainty.
In the question-and-answer session at the close of ASPO-USA’s 2008 conference, presenters respond about the current financial chaos and resource scarcity, how to encourage intelligent political action, the need for a peak oil high-visibility champion, peak oil’s relationship to climate change, and suggestions for household energy reduction.
(13 November 2008, but just posted)
