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Peak Oil: Prominent Peaker (Robert Hirsch) Tells Allies to (Temporarily) Pipe Down
Neil King Jr., Environmental Capital (blog), Wall Street Journal
Mum’s the Word, Peakniks!
Should the deans of the peak-oil movement give the world a break and shelve their dire warnings of impending supply shortages?
So urges Robert Hirsch, one of the true eminences of the peakist crowd. Hirsch penned a seminal 2005 report for the Energy Department called “Peaking of World Oil Production” that warned of stark consequences as world oil supplies tighten, slamming the world economy. He has since lectured widely on the topic.
But with the world economy now under seige for quite different reasons, Hirsch is urging his cohorts to tone down their bleakness for a while so as not to worsen the damage.
In a memo “To The Peak Oil Community,” Hirsch recommends that the group “minimize its effort to awaken the world to the near-term dangers of world oil supply.”
His rationale is itself plenty grim. “If the realization of peak oil along with its disastrous financial implications was added to the existing mix of troubles, the added trauma could be unthinkable,” he wrote to his colleagues.
Hirsch sent his memo to a Who’s Who of the peak movement, including retired petroleum geologist Colin Campbell; investment banker Matt Simmons; Swedish peak-oil scholar Kjell Aleklett; and Steve Andrews, director of the U.S. Association for the Study of Peak Oil.
But his appeal, sent Thursday, doesn’t seem to be winning much support.
… Here’s the memo in full:
TO THE PEAK OIL COMMUNITY:
The world is in the midst of the most severe financial crisis in most of our lifetimes. The economic damage that has already been wrought is considerable, and we have yet to see the bottom or the turnaround. Against this background, I suggest that the peak oil community minimize its efforts to awaken the world to the near-term dangers of world oil supply. The motivation is simple: By minimizing our efforts in the near term, we may not add fuel to the economic fires that are already burning so fiercely.
We are all aware of how disoriented governments and business are right now. Our leaders, leaders-to-be, and best minds are disoriented and seeking pathways out of the current morass. The public is in a quiet panic mode — those who were reasonably well off are less well of, and their options for action are limited. Those that have lost their jobs and/or homes are desperate. Businesses and the markets are in what might be called a free fall. If the realization of peak oil along with its disastrous financial implications was added to the existing mix of troubles, the added trauma could be unthinkable.
Like many of you, I’ve devoted my recent efforts to trying to wake the public and governments to the impending horrors of peak oil. As much as that awaking is urgently needed, continuing to press forward now is almost certainly not in the broader interest.
Many may be tempted to directly challenge the recent IEA World Energy Outlook. I am among those who were very disappointed. Pressing those concerns at this time might further the peak oil “cause,” but it could well do much more damage than any of us really intend.
Please keep up your studies and thinking, because helping the world realize the dangers of peak oil is an absolute must. In the near term, keeping relatively quiet is likely the better part of valor.
(14 November 2008)
Neil King Jr., WSJ energy reporter, spoke at the recent ASPO-USA conference in Sacramento. Robert Hirsch is lead author of the noted Hirsch Report on peak oil.
Mr. Hirsch has a good point. It’s counter-productive to contribute to a mood of panic. This would be a good time to turn down the “doomerosity” knob.
And yet… An awareness of peak oil is more important now than ever before.
Governments are expected to boost spending in a Keynsian attempt to keep the economy going. If we are aware of energy limitations, we would spend to promote renewable energy and improve efficiency (e.g. rail and mass transit).
If we continue with business as usual, we will spend money on projects that make our situation worse (cars, airports and freeways).
Mr. Hirsch operates at the level of government and industry, so he may be unaware of peak oil work at the individual and community level. Individuals have championed home gardening, prudent spending, and living a satisfying life without the need for the energy-intensive consumerism (See Sharon Astyk’s writings).
Groups like Transition Towns and Post Carbon Institute have promoted the idea of resilient communities.
These efforts are just as applicable to an economic downturn as to peak oil.
Many in the peak oil community have gone through the stages of denial and trauma that the general populace are undergoing. We have ideas and positive mental attitudes about dealing with the future. So why not take advantage of it?
-BA
UPDATE (Nov 15) Martin Payne, an EB contributor and upstream oil and gas professional, writes:
I was pleased to get to meet Dr. Hirsch at the last ASPO conference, and chat with him a little. His note is very interesting. Obviously he is addressing the reaction to the IEA article. A lot of people are upset. And, as you are probably aware, even worse than the report were some of the media’s misinterpretations of the report – such as Steve Goldstein’s Marketwatch article. My own reaction to the Marketwatch article was one of incredulity! After reading the first few paragraphs, I couldn’t believe that anyone could write such an article and not understand that finding “six Saudi Arabias, half by 2015” wasn’t tantamount to a devastating supply problem, ie Peak Oil! [revised this last sentence on Nov 17 at MP’s request.]
From the Marketwatch article, which appeared on November 12, 2008, which had the subheading,* *”*The International Energy Agency on Wednesday dismissed fears about peak oil, but the group said under-investment could lead to production troubles.*”:
“But it warned that OPEC countries will need to step up their investment campaign. Some 64 million barrels of oil equivalent a day of additional gross capacity, the equivalent of six times the amount Saudi Arabia produces today, must be brought on stream from 2007 to 2030, with about half needed by 2015.”
I believe Tom Whipple got it correctly. The IEA was very clever in their wording. The answer is there, but it is hidden to some, or there is sufficient material present for use in obfuscation, if desired. Perhaps Dr. Hirsch is saying the same thing; namely, the answer is there; let it be, this is the only way to get this information out and not create a whole new crisis or exacerbate the one we are in.
I agree with your comments – the solutions for dealing with tough economic times intersect with those for dealing with “Peak Oil”. Also, as you mentioned, given the reality of Peak Oil, we should direct our “macro” efforts (and the coming “jobs” program) towards stimulating private enterprise to operate on the right kind of infrastructure – mass transit retrofits, conservation efforts, rail improvements and CNG/LNG stations. Hence, my article a while back, “Fix energy, fix the economy.”
‘Peak oil’ adherents grow in number and influence
Paul Leonard, Queens Chronicle (New York City)
What do former Vice President Al Gore, Wall Street Journal columnist Neil King and Long Island City Business Development Corp. director Dan Miner have in common?
It turns out all three men have, to varying degrees, allied themselves with a “peak oil” theory once dismissed as a crackpot concept lurking in the darkened corners of the Internet.
But in the last few years, with oil skyrocketing to over $140 a barrel in July before free falling to below $60 at press time, the theory has attracted plenty of followers who predict disastrous consequences for all humankind if governments around the world do not drastically change their energy policies.
“This is no longer a fringe idea,” said Miner, who is also a chairman of the city’s branch of the Sierra Club and the leader of a “peak oil” Meetup Group with 535 members. “It’s leading edge.”
This Friday, many Queens “peakers” will join curious filmgoers for a presentation of a documentary, “The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil” at All Saints Church in Sunnyside.
(13 November 2008)
Life after (peak) oil (PowerDown in North Carolina)
Gerry Canavan and Jaimee Hills, Independent Weekly
Rethinking priorities and kicking the fuel habi
—-
… For those in North Carolina who take the Hubbert Peak seriously, and who see it as occurring not only within their lifetimes but in the next few years, neither future seems likely. Rather, they are preparing for a world without oil by steeling themselves for something in the middle, a world after cheap gasoline and the conveniences that come with it.
When Stephen and Rebekah Hren learned about Peak Oil, they geared up for the apocalypse. “Like most people do when they understand the gravity of the situation,” Stephen says, “we had a Peak Oil freak out.” They bought 10 acres of farmland about 30 miles north of Durham, built an off-the-grid house with solar power and passive solar heating—a “hideout,” Stephen calls it now—and waited for the end to come. And waited, and waited.
“After two years we thought, ‘Maybe this isn’t such a good thing,'” Rebekah remembers. “We’re way out in the middle of nowhere and gas is going to get more and more expensive. It became obvious to us that we couldn’t really feed ourselves if it came right down to it. We were always going to need support from a community, and we were in no kind of a community at all.”
This epiphany was the impetus for the founding of NC Powerdown (www.meetup.com/NCPowerdown), a group that meets about once a month to discuss the transition to a post-oil economy in the context of community activism and shared resources. Rebekah explains the thinking behind the group: “NC Powerdown can do a couple of things. It can publicize peak oil, and it can also be a skill-sharing group and a resource base for people with ideas about how to transition to a lower fuel economy and lifestyle.”
“A lot of people at NC Powerdown had the same thought we had: ‘Oh, I need to get my acres and grow all my own food,” Stephen adds. “We were passing them the other way and saying ‘No, no, no, don’t do that.’ There’s no way to get through this transition to lower oil supplies without having a community network—a support network.”
And so, as they recount in their recent book, The Carbon-Free Home, the Hrens decided they needed to move back to a city. They sold their country hideout and moved to Durham, citing its transportation, community and culture as pluses for the low-energy, environmentally friendly lifestyle. They bought an older 1930s home on Trinity Avenue to retrofit and refurbish, possessing the necessary carpentry and electrician skills to do much of the work themselves.
(12 November 2008)
‘Energy Beyond Oil’ presentation now on-line
Paul Mobbs, Free Range Energy Beyond Oil Project
The Paul Mobbs’ “Energy Beyond Oil” Presentation slides and background information are on-line. You can download PDF versions (plain and one with explanatory text/links) or click-through the pages and see the information/links that accompanies each slide.
Hi all,
After much delay (damn, I’ve been busy lately!) we’ve managed to get the Energy Beyond Oil Presentation slides and background information on-line. You can download PDF versions (plain and one with explanatory text/links) or click-through the pages and see the information/links that accompanies each slide:
http://www.fraw.org.uk/ebo/presentation/index.shtml
First presented in June 2002 (wow, those were the days when it was fun to talk about peak oil) as part of a Free Range Network weekend workshop on energy (its first public outing was in October 2002), the 2-hour ‘Energy Beyond Oil’ (EBO) presentation is the basic, beginner’s guide to the issues of energy consumption in the UK, climate change and and peak oil. Structured as a 2-hour long visual presentation and discussion, the event outlines the scale and complexity of the issues we face, within the UK, as the human species reaches the limits of the Earth’s environment.
Probably around Christmas we’re also going to add an audio commentary for each slide too!
Hopefully the ‘Less is a Four Letter Word’ presentation (partially on-line now) will receive a similar treatment in the next few weeks, and the ‘Energy and Food’ talk by Mid-December.
Also, all the recently updated information sheets are now back on-line too:
http://www.fraw.org.uk/download/ebo/index.shtml
Enjoy!
P.
(14 November 2008)
Peak oil is subject of short story contest winner
Patti Thorn, Rocky Mountain News
… Today, we proudly announce the winner: Heirlooms, by Robert Pogue Ziegler, 35, of Paonia. Told in beautiful, mesmerizing prose, Heirlooms is the story of a woman attempting to care for her daughter in a barren and forbidding future landscape. We urge you to turn to your special supplement, where you’ll find the story.
… Have you written science fiction before?
I started writing science fiction about a year and a half ago. … I was writing more contemporary fiction, and it stressed me out. And I thought, “Hey, I’ll write a science fiction book and that will be more fun.” And now, I take it just as seriously as I took writing contemporary fiction.
I guess what intrigues me about it is that it’s not often used to really look at problems with the world. In (futuristic stories), there’s always some great techno fix or a world where there’s unlimited energy, and nobody really talks about how that happens. Nobody is really addressing problems like global warming, (declining) oil — or not many people are, anyway. Those kinds of issues are much more interesting to me than warp drive or anything like that. It’s a way to really look at problems that have to be dealt with on a cultural level but also on an infrastructure level — problems that are really difficult to deal with.
What were the problems you wanted to explore in this story?
The story takes place in the future where it’s post-peak oil. It’s a post-finance economy. It’s a place where there’s horrible disparity between classes and people are just making do with what they have, and it’s very difficult. It’s just a way of saying, “Hey, these things that we’re taking for granted aren’t things that we really should be taking for granted.” These are things that we really have to address, and if we don’t, it’s going to be hard.
It’s such a sad, bleak scenario. Do you think something like this might really be in store for us?
I hope not, and I don’t think so. People are adaptable. We’ll probably start making the right choices when we start feeling the right kinds of pressure. When gas hits $10 per gallon. When it costs $12 to buy a California avocado. When we start importing all our wheat and corn from Canada. When there’s no more skiing anywhere south of Montana. We’ll figure it out, hopefully in time.
(14 November 2008)
