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Many more articles are available through the Energy Bulletin homepage
Geologists predict that oil production will decline within a decade.
Indy Chakrabarti, Seismic Micro-Technology (letter to the journal of the Society of Exploration Geophysicists)
Seismic Micro-Technology conducted an informal survey on the perspectives of energy by geoscientists at the recent AAPG Annual Convention and the results might interest TLE readers. Our survey had 150 respondents; 46% were age 45 or older and 60% were from North America.
The results can be seen in the accompanying charts. The primary conclusions were:
- A majority see the price of oil being more than US$150/
barrel in 2013 - Most see “peak oil” occurring in less than 10 years, with a third predicting peak oil in less than five years
- Most believe that hydrocarbons will remain the primary source of energy (by far) in 2033 and that nuclear will be the most “prolific” alternative source
About 61% of the respondents thought global hydrocarbon reserves would decline within 10 years and this fi gure increased to 74% for geoscience “managers.” Among the current “hot” prospects, the majority of the respondents felt that only deepwater off shore Brazil and Canadian oil sands had potential to produce more than five billion barrels.
(October 2008)
The original has charts for responses to the questions:
- Price of a barrel of oil in one year?
- Price in five years?
Pointed out at SightLine, with additional comments: The End Is Nigh (Now With Charts!).
ASPO Newsletter for November (PDF)
C.J.Campbell (compiler), ASPO-Ireland
Contents
1093. Hubbert’s Line
1094. Is it deliberate ?
1095. Some encouragement
1096. USA Re-evaluated
1097. A King’s Response
1098. ASPO-7 Conference in Barcelona
1099. Oil Depletion Database
(31 October 2008)
William Tamblyn reports that “one important link appears to be bad. Item 1098 says the Barcelona conference presentations are available at this site: http://aspo-spain/aspo7/presentaciones.html
That link will not work for me but I found this one that does work:
http://www.aspo-spain.org/aspo7/presentaciones.html
I have already looked at several of the presentations and all the ones I looked at were really good.
ASPO VII – second day
Luis de Sousa, The Oil Drum: Europe
After a rather gloomy day of forecasts of conventional energy supplies, the second day was more promising: alternative energy was the main dish. Economics and Finance would also be on the table. It was a heavily scheduled day with some Q&A sessions omitted to make room for all the speakers.
(31 October 2008)
Coverage of the 7th Annual ASPO-International conference in Barcelona this month.
Peak Oil: Are Oil Prices Destined to Rise Again?
Keith Johnson, Environmental Capital, Wall Street Journal
Crude oil futures continued down on Friday, spooked by the dim outlook for the U.S. economy. That’s precisely what makes it likely oil prices will rebound next year.
Big oil companies are already finding it harder to maintain, let alone increase, production. Chevron doubled its third-quarter net profit, but said production fell 5.7% in the quarter, after ExxonMobil reported an 8% production drop yesterday.
Falling oil prices are only going to accelerate that trend, analysts warn, at a time when OPEC is accelerating output cuts and production declines at oil fields around the world is apparently increasing.
Big oil as a whole needs oil prices of about $82 a barrel next year to fund their plans for new investment in oil exploration and production, Credit Suisse says in a new report. Right now, the consensus forecast of about $75 oil means overall, oil companies will suspend some marginal projects, as Shell has already announced with Canadian tar sands.
If oil stays around $60 a barrel, the funding shortfall for Big Oil will increase to more than $70 billion, CSFB says, as oil companies mothball a range of tricky new projects. That represents about 20% of planned capital expenditure for big oil companies in 2009.
Not everybody would be affected equally. ExxonMobil can weather oil prices at $50 a barrel, the bank says, while big Chinese oil companies are praying oil returns to record levels north of $140.
(31 October 2008)
