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ASPO Newsletter – July (PDF)
C.J.Campbell, ASPO-Ireland
1057. The Flat-Earth Refrain loses its appeal
1058. Impact of High Prices on Reserves
1059. Falling Demand
1060. Economical with the Truth
1061. Peak Oil : A Turning Point for Mankind
1062. An Atlas of Oil & Gas Depletion
1063. A Remarkable Shift of Position
1064. Saudi Net Crude Oil Exports
1065. ASPO-USA Conference
1066. A Matter of Saudi Mindset
(July 2008)
The upside of $200 oil
Craig Offman, National Post
… If we are truly reaching the end of petroleum production-a scenario known as “peak oil”-there are all kinds of gloomy predictions one could make. Facing the future of $200 barrels of oil, analysts are already using terms like “financial tsunami.” They predict that inflation will skyrocket with the price of gas, creating a flashback of mid-70s stagflation. Commuters will become energy refugees, abandoning their homes and their SUV’s and invading the cities. In the meantime, production costs will cripple manufacturers, a scenario that would turn Central Canada’s factories into a scrap heap of rust. “I can’t think of any upside to $200-oil,” former EnCana chief executive Gwyn Morgan told the National Post.
Yet if history is any example, ingenuity can trump disaster. After all, we live in a market economy that can adjust, innovate, and progress. …
Stepping gingerly towards the crystal ball, one could also say that there could be unforeseen benefits to the so-called era of “peak oil,” especially for Canada, a stable democracy sitting on lots of energy. A commodities boom will strengthen our international stature, bolster the clout of provincial governments, reinvigorate our cities, and reward entrepreneurship. And it could make us a little skinnier, too.
(X July 2008)
The year everything changed
Ian Verrender, Sydney Morning Herald
… I’m going to go out on a limb here with a couple of bold predictions. I think we are at a pivotal point in history; that we are witnessing the early stages of a massive shift in the global economy, in the balance of power and in the way we live.
… In years to come, it’s quite probable we will look back at 2008 as the year in which everything changed. And most of the changes being wrought upon us relate to energy, our use of it and its cost.
There are several powerful forces at work at the moment; some cyclical and some far more fundamental.
,,, And that’s where we come to the more fundamental and permanent changes at work on the global economy.
What is happening in China and, to a lesser extent, India is akin to what occurred in North America in the 19th century. Back then, the balance of economic power shifted from the Old World to the New World. It’s happening again now.
… The real change being wrought on us is in energy. And it is energy – or rather the cost of energy – that will determine our future.
It was energy that started the Industrial Revolution 200 years ago – when we first started burning hydrocarbons in the form of coal. And it was energy, in the form of oil, that sparked the transport revolution a century ago.
… This time around, the spike is being driven by demand. And if you ask any seasoned oil explorer, even they now talk about peak oil being just a few years off.
(5 July 2008)
Hunting for oil villains
Jon Birger, Fortune
Atlanta hedge fund manager Michael Masters has been a star witness in two recent Congressional hearings on how speculators are supposedly driving up oil prices. Masters and I don’t see eye-to-eye on this issue, so I was surprised to get a call from him after my “Don’t Blame The Oil Speculators” column went up on Fortune.com last week.
Masters contends that without speculators, the price of oil would be $65 or $70 a barrel. He points out that the amount invested in commodities index products has risen from $13 billion to $260 billion in five years, a fact he thinks is key to understanding oil prices.
… In the end, Masters and I simply agreed to disagree. But there was one thing he said that really piqued my interest. “What do you think would happen,” Masters asked, “if the market went into liquidation-only mode [i.e. if speculators started unloading their futures contracts], like we saw with the Hunt brothers in 1980?
Nelson Bunker Hunt and William Herbert Hunt were famous for cornering the silver market in the 1970s, eventually driving silver prices from $2 to $50 an ounce. When the Hunts liquidated their portfolio, silver crashed to $10. So the question Masters was asking seemed relevant: Would the oil market go into a silver-esque tailspin if oil-futures traders turned bearish?
(5 July 2008)
The King of Saudi Arabia talks about oil; we should listen
Fabius Maximus, RGE Monitor
Summary: One astonishing aspect of the energy crisis is the western media’s preferences when it comes to sources of information. They love western speculators, economists, oil company executives, and politicos. Others go to small articles in the back pages, including statements by leaders of oil producing nations – even the King of Saudi Arabia, home to the world’s largest reserves. No wonder the American public gets surprised by every new development.
In the following interview, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia stays on message with what the Saudi Princes have said for several years. He has just become more explicit. He makes two things very clear.
1. He dashes any hope that they plan any new large new projects to expand oil production (beyond those under construction).
2. He fires a warning shot at consuming nations that plan to raise taxes on oil – either directly or via carbon taxes. We cannot complain that oil prices are too high and then tax it more. If we believe higher oil prices would benefit the ecosystem, the Saudi Princes can oblige us.
Interview with King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, Arab Times, no date (aprox 1 July 2008) – Bold emphasis added. Excerpt: …
(4 July 2008)
